The Ravens are 8-5 with four games left to play, and ESPN's Football Power Index gives them a 98% chance of making the playoffs.
An 0-2 start created an early sense of urgency, but the Ravens responded and have put themselves on the verge of reaching the postseason for the 12th time in Head Coach John Harbaugh's 17 seasons.
"I'm happy with the first part of the season," Harbaugh said. "It's not perfect, I'd like to have a few more wins, but I'm glad we have the wins that we have.
"Every goal that we have is in front of us, and we have the team to do it. So, what can we do? (Hall of Fame Coach) Bill Parcells had a great quote. He said, 'The season starts after Thanksgiving.' Wow. What a truth for the teams that are still in it, and we're one of those teams."
Here five reasons why the Ravens can go on a run and get to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans:
Derrick Henry is a proven closer.
Henry's ability to take over a game could be especially key down the stretch and into the postseason.
Playing for the Tennessee Titans, he had a 195-yard playoff game against the Ravens (2019), a 182-yard playoff game against the Patriots (2019), and a 156-yard playoff game against the Chiefs (2017). The Titans won all those games on the road, while Henry was playing in an offense that didn't have the abundance of weapons that Baltimore does.
Henry takes pressure off Lamar Jackson and vice versa. The Ravens are 6-0 when Henry rushes for at least 100 yards this season, and he seems primed for a strong finishing kick.
Henry's average yards per carry has gotten better as seasons have gone on and the weather has turned cold. He's averaged 5.08 yards per carry in December and 5.89 yards per carry in January. Henry is fresh and ready to roll down the stretch.
"Derrick hasn't had a lot of carries, a lot of wear and tear on him this year, so I think it's set up perfectly for him to finish the year like he's capable of and what we expect out of him," Running Backs Coach Willie Taggart said. "Derrick is fresh right now, and that's great."
Baltimore's offense has explosive capability.
Henry can take it to the house from anywhere on the field, and it doesn't stop there. Lamar Jackson, Justice Hill, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace, and Charlie Kolar have all been involved in at least one play that went for 50-plus yards this season.
It's difficult to grind out long drives against the NFL's best defensive teams. But the Ravens have more quick-strike capability than at any time during Jackson's career. If the Ravens fall behind, they have the firepower to mount a comeback. If they take a lead into the fourth quarter, they have a running attack that can close the show.
In their 35-10 victory over the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, the Ravens showed how lethal their offense can be against a Super Bowl contender when everything comes together. The Ravens will be chasing that kind of offensive game down the stretch and into the postseason.
Baltimore's defense is improving.
The fact that the Ravens’ defense is trending up is a key development.
Over the past three weeks, Baltimore has given up the fewest passing yards in the league (165.0 yards). The secondary has played more cohesively since Ar'Darius Washington joined the starting lineup, and the Ravens are not giving up as many big passing plays. They haven't surrendered a completion of 20 or more yards the past two weeks.
Defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike, linebacker Roquan Smith and safety Kyle Hamilton have All-Pro resumes. Marlon Humphrey is having a terrific season. The Ravens expect a healthier and “dominant” Travis Jones after the bye.
The talent is there for the Ravens to keep playing well defensively. If their defense remains solid, they can beat anyone.
Being the No. 1 seed is not a prerequisite for reaching the Super Bowl.
Four of the last six No. 1 seeds in the AFC did not reach the Super Bowl.
The Ravens can still win the AFC North, trailing the Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 ½ games, with a home game against Pittsburgh in Week 16. However, Baltimore is going to have a hard time overtaking the Chiefs (11-1) or Bills (10-2) for the No. 1 seed.
That's okay. The Ravens didn't reach the Super Bowl with the No. 1 seed in 2019 and 2023, but they seem to embrace the role of underdog and usually respond well when they're being doubted.
The Ravens didn't panic when they started 0-2, never wavering from their belief that this could still be a special season. If the Ravens are not a trendy Super Bowl pick heading into the playoffs, they'll be just fine with that.
There's not a dominant team in the AFC.
The Bills are the hottest team in the AFC with a seven-game winning streak, including a win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Baltimore blew out the Bills, 35-10, in late September.
The Chiefs are back-to-back Super Bowl champs. They have three future Hall of Famers in quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Head Coach Andy Reid, and tight end Travis Kelce. The Chiefs keep their poise under pressure, win in a variety of ways, and will benefit from having a bye should they capture the No. 1 seed.
However, the Chiefs are not dominating. Nine of Kansas City's 11 wins have been by one score. A fumbled snap gave them a win over the Raiders last week, it took a walk-off field goal to beat the Panthers the week before, and they blocked a 35-yard game-winning field goal to hang on against the Broncos in Week 10.
Baltimore came within Likely keeping his toe inbounds from potentially winning in Kansas City in Week 1. That 27-20 Chiefs victory had a different vibe to it than Baltimore's 17-10 defeat in last year's AFC Championship game. In Week 1, the Ravens had more total yards than Kansas City (452-353), more total plays (74-50), and outscored the Chiefs 10-7 in the fourth quarter even without the potential touchdown by Likely.
The Ravens believe they should have won that game. If they play enough in December and January, the Ravens may earn a rematch.
