It's a sickening Groundhog Day in Baltimore as the Ravens lost on a failed two-point conversion for the second time in three weeks.
The Ravens fell to the Green Bay Packers, 31-30, at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 15 when Tyler Huntley's pass for Mark Andrews was broken up.
Once again, that left questions about Head Coach John Harbaugh's decision to go for the win instead of calling for an extra point and heading to overtime.
"I think our chances of winning right there were a little bit higher than in overtime, maybe, if you calculate it out," Harbaugh said. "I felt good about it. I thought we had a good play. Again, they made a really good play. I have to give that safety [Darnell Savage] a lot of credit for getting out there and tipping that ball."
The Ravens were big underdogs and their already injury-ravaged secondary had become even thinner over the course of the game. For much of the night, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense marched down the field.
If Baltimore went to overtime, the Packers could have gone down the field for another touchdown and the game would've been over. Instead, Harbaugh gambled that his offense could get two yards and steal a win that most thought they had no chance to get with Lamar Jackson sidelined by an ankle injury.
The fact that the Ravens have now lost two games on two-point conversions doesn't make Harbaugh second-guess the decisions. In each, he felt the circumstances of the game dictated that as the right call.
In Pittsburgh, cornerback Marlon Humphrey had gone down with a season-ending injury on the previous drive. This time, the Ravens were hanging on against one of the best teams in football with their backup quarterback and cornerbacks who had just been called up from the practice squad.
Harbaugh said there "are a lot of scenarios where we kick it." That would be if he felt the Ravens were the stronger team and had a better shot to win a 50/50 game in overtime.
"It's situation to situation. Those two situations you want to talk about, if you want to go back and rehash the season, I'm happy to do it. To me, in both of those cases, that gave us the best chance to win," Harbaugh said. "Because we didn't win doesn't make it not true. It's still true now, just as true as it was then. So, it doesn't always work out."
Coaches are going for it on fourth down and on two-point conversions more than ever these days, as that's often what the analytics and win probabilities dictate as the best decision. The Ravens also went for it on fourth-and-goal from the 3-yard line on their opening drive but were stopped.
But Harbaugh said analytics isn't the overriding reason why he's going for the win.
"It's mostly gut. The numbers are the numbers, but the numbers aren't perfect," Harbaugh said. "I can tell you this; I've shot a lot of holes in the numbers with the numbers guys. The numbers are never going to be perfect. They don't take everything into account, so you just make a decision. The numbers are part of it, but the numbers aren't the main decision."
Andrews was definitely in favor of going for two. He was also the target on the Pittsburgh two-point conversion.
"That was the decision. I don't think there's anything else," Andrews said. "I told Coach [Harbaugh] I wouldn't have it any other way. I think that was the right thing to do. We're an aggressive team. We fought, clawed. That was a good Packers team. For us to be right there and almost win it, that's the opportunity that you want. I love the decision. I think we're past that. We're going to keep being aggressive."
