Analytics Show Lamar Jackson's Mom Is Right That He Should Run More
The numbers suggest that mother knows best.
Lamar Jackson said after the Ravens' loss to the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday that his mother cussed him out because he didn't run the ball more when there were open lanes.
While Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken said yesterday that he didn't see many opportunities on tape versus the Eagles, Jackson has scrambled less this season.
Sharp Football Analysis’ Warren Sharp said the data shows that Jackson does indeed need to run more when opportunities present themselves, especially in close games late in the season.
Sharp noted that over the past two seasons from Week 12 onward (including the playoffs), Jackson runs the ball less in games decided by 10 points or fewer than he does in games decided by 11 points or more. The opposite is true for quarterbacks such as the Eagles' Jalen Hurts, Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen, and Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes.
"There are many times when the game is tight and the game is a big game," Sharp said, "that Lamar seems to scramble around, to hang in the pocket, hang behind the line of scrimmage for far too long before doing one of three things: taking a sack; choosing to scramble, which often times does not result in as much upside as it otherwise would have if he took an open run lane a lot earlier; or trying to fire the football when he's outside the pocket, he's moving, and he doesn't have his feet set, and so it's far less likely to be an accurate completion. … Sometimes these guys are wide open, as we saw with Isaiah Likely [against the Eagles]."
Sharp emphasized that he's not suggesting more designed runs for Jackson, but rather Jackson choosing to run on designed pass plays. He said analytics indicate that such plays have a high success rate.
"The most perfect play in the NFL, the play that delivers the highest floor from an EPA per play perspective, is when a quarterback on a designed pass play keeps the ball and runs through an open run lane," Sharp said. "He is not scrambling as a result of pressure; he is scrambling because a run lane opens up in the defensive line and he just chooses to take it. First read covered, I'm taking the run lane.
"On average, you're hoping for about 8-8.5 yards per pass attempt. The NFL average on a quarterback drop-back with an open run lane and the quarterback scrambles is about 8.3 yards per carry. That's the average quarterback, not a quarterback as good as Lamar."
Sharp said running on designed pass plays early in the game forces the defense to change its strategy by having to account for the quarterback running, which should open things up in the passing game.
Jackson said he's not making a concerted effort to run less, he's just going through his progressions and trying to give his receivers opportunities to get the ball. Sharp speculated that Jackson might not be running as much because he wants to prove that he can win big games as a pocket passer.
"We already know Lamar can win as a pocket quarterback," Sharp said. "He has had success. Maybe he hasn't won a Super Bowl, but he has proved from a statistical perspective that he can dominate even when he's inside the pocket throwing the football. You don't need to prove that anymore.
"What you need to do is win playoff games, win a Super Bowl. And the way that you're going to do that is by taking advantage of your God-given ability that most any other quarterback doesn't have. He's more evasive, elusive, and faster than Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. He needs to take advantage."
Looking at Which Ravens Players Are the NFL's Best at Specific Skills
Sharp makes a good argument for Jackson to run more, but Jackson's ability to extend plays and make a throw is special.
Jackson was named the NFL's most instinctive passer by ESPN's Matt Bowen, who looked at 102 different skills among players at every position and identified which player is the best at each.
"Jackson's ability to create on second-reaction throws is the best in the league," Bowen wrote. "With his dynamic movement ability, Jackson can extend plays and keep the eyes up to find open targets late in the down. His QBR of 91.8 on throws outside of the pocket is tops among quarterbacks who have played at least 10 games."
Jackson was also the pick for best decision-maker and, of course, top dual threat.
"Jackson has thrown 29 touchdowns compared to only three interceptions, and his Total QBR of 73.4 ranks third in the NFL. He is producing high-level numbers and protecting the football," Bowen wrote. "Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 678 rushing yards this season, including 28 carries of 10 or more yards. He's also averaging 5.9 yards per carry on designed rushes. Jackson is the most electric player in the league with the ball in his hands."
Here's a look at the other Ravens who made Bowen's list:
Most powerful rusher: Derrick Henry
"Henry is still forcing defensive backs to make some serious business decisions when he gets on a north/south track. His 600 yards after first contact not only rank No. 1 in the NFL but are also 145 more than second-best player (Josh Jacobs). Henry also has picked up 65 first downs, the most in the league."
Most sudden pass-catcher: Zay Flowers
"He's an electric mover with the ability to shift gears as a ball carrier, and 46.7% of Flowers' total receiving yardage has come after the catch (403 of 863)."
Best snapper: Tyler Linderbaum
"Linderbaum -- who has a pass block win rate of 96.7%, third among centers -- uses his quick snap mechanics to create immediate blocking advantages."
Best zone coverage: Marlon Humphrey
"We know Humphrey can match in man coverage, but his ability as a zone/Cover 2 corner has to be spotlighted because it leads to ball production. Humphrey has five picks, with three of them as a flat defender sinking into the throwing lane."
Best open-field tackler: Kyle Hamilton
"I like Hamilton here because of his ability to win with angles, eliminating the distance to the ball carrier quickly. And with his long frame, Hamilton has a large tackle radius. He has tallied 88 tackles on the season."
On a side note, Jackson, Henry, Humphrey, and Hamilton were named to Pro Football Focus’ Third Quarter All-Pro Team.
Why Sticking With Justin Tucker Is the Right Call
Justin Tucker's prolonged slump is one of the most unexpected and perplexing developments in the NFL this season, but Head Coach John Harbaugh reiterated this week that he is "very confident it's going to get fixed."
Baltimore Beatdown’s Kyle Phoenix pointed out that good kickers have come back strong after subpar seasons, specifically citing the Kansas City Chiefs' Harrison Butker and Pittsburgh Steelers' Chris Boswell as examples. He said if anyone has earned the benefit of the doubt it's Tucker, who entered this season as the most accurate kicker of all time.
"The list of kickers to regain their accuracy after a bad season doesn't end with these two," Phoenix wrote. "Robbie Gould did so in 2014-2015 and Mason Crosby did so in 2012-2013. There are others, too. The Ravens would be wise to not cast out Tucker so quickly.
"This season has shown Tucker is not the exception to the rule. Kickers have bad seasons. But to excommunicate the greatest kicker in NFL history over a one-season slump would be a foolish, reactionary decision. … There's nobody you should trust more than Tucker to find his way back."
