Slim Majority of Pundits Pick Baltimore to Beat Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills come to Baltimore Sunday night with a 3-0 record, leading the NFL in scoring and point differential, and the early MVP front-runner in quarterback Josh Allen.
Beating the Bills is a formidable challenge, but a slim majority of pundits we sampled (32 of 60) believe the Ravens (1-2) will hand Buffalo its first loss.
Of the 37 prognosticators who predicted the score, only USA Today's Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz had the game being decided by more than one score (he picked the Bills to win, 30-21).
Here's what pundits are saying about the game:
Two Ravens stars off to slow starts will play crucial roles in a Baltimore victory.
The Baltimore Banner's Chris Korman: "My bold prediction is that two vets who haven't been themselves will be. So: Mark Andrews with a TD, Justin Tucker with the game-winner from 51. Take that, technique problems."
The Ravens have the offense to exploit the Bills' weakness on defense.
Sharp Football Analysis' Warren Sharp: "[The Bills' first three opponents] throw deep and outside the numbers at the highest rates in the NFL, so it's no surprise that a team like the Bills with solid corners was able to have success defending a passing game which was attacking their defensive strength. The Ravens do the exact opposite. They don't go deep and outside the numbers; they throw underneath and between the numbers, and they do that at some of the highest rates in the NFL. The Bills haven't faced that this year, and it's going to attack them and their new safeties and their backup linebackers in ways that opposing offenses haven't done yet this season. … Baltimore doesn't have to change anything to attack their weakness."
The Ravens need to ride their running game like they did last week.
NBC Sports' Chris Simms: "I think the Ravens are crazy if they don't continue to play the way they did last week: run the ball. All the sexy, big plays in the pass game will come if they continue to do that."
Look for the Ravens to force Allen into committing turnovers.
The Baltimore Banner's Paul Mancano: "One thing that doesn't seem sustainable is Allen's 7-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Only Sam Howell racked up more picks than Allen did in 2023, and though the Ravens have nabbed just one INT this year, this defense led the NFL in takeaways a year ago. Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens have looked sticky in coverage, and Kyle Hamilton is just getting warmed up. If Baltimore can win the turnover battle, it could make Buffalo's offense look mortal."
Sporting News’ Vinnie Iyer: "Allen will run into some turnover trouble against Baltimore's back-end looks after the Ravens apply some good inside pressure on him."
Thanks to Allen, the Bills will slip past the Ravens.
The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec: "The Ravens are a tough out at home in prime time, but I think they're going to have an awfully hard time matching up with Josh Allen. It's a week-to-week league, but the Bills are just playing at a much higher level right now. They should win a close one."
USA Today’s Lorenzo Reyes: "Buffalo is the most complete team right now in the NFL. Baltimore should be up there, given its roster, but this is an inconsistent team that doesn't finish games. Baltimore is tremendous at stopping the rush, but I suspect Josh Allen may torch that secondary, which has given up too many big plays. This will be a fascinating game; I'm excited to tune in."
The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr.: "The Bills beat the Ravens because I'm still worried about Baltimore's ability to put away games, and Allen is a master at pulling off comebacks."
| Source | Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 5 of 11 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Baltimore Sun | 4 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “Both teams will want to play from ahead, but the Ravens will have the slightest advantage as they pound a wounded defense with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson for a win that puts their season back on track.” — Childs Walker |
| The Baltimore Banner | 4 of 6 panelists pick Ravens | “The Ravens have the crowd, the coaching and the personnel to knock the Bills out of cruise control. But should they really be field goal favorites? Quarterback Josh Allen looks like the NFL’s best player. Buffalo’s offensive line is superior. And its defense — while perhaps not as talented as the Ravens’ and certainly not as healthy — has been far more reliable. Only a fool would count out Lamar Jackson in prime time, but games come down to those crucial advantages.” — Jonas Shaffer |
| USA Today | 3 of 6 panelists pick Ravens | |
| NFL.com | 3 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “For a squad that tends to run the ball down the opposition's throat, Lamar Jackson and Co. are having a lot of trouble closing out games. It would help if Justin Tucker was making his kicks. Anyhow, maybe the script starts to flip on Sunday night. The Bills have been dominant the last two weeks, but the only team that gave them any trouble this season was the Cardinals, who held a 17-3 lead late in the second quarter of what turned into a 34-28 loss at Buffalo in the opener. Jackson can put the Bills' defense on its heels like Kyler Murray did in Week 1, and perhaps a Ravens team learning from its mistakes will finish the job at home this time.” — Dan Parr |
| NFL Network | 6 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Sporting News | Ravens 23, Bills 20 | "The Bills have been having fun running the ball to support Josh Allen in their diverse and balanced offense. The Ravens can be relentless running at a high level with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and that's how to attack Buffalo's defense. Allen will run into some turnover trouble against Baltimore's back-end looks after the Ravens apply some good inside pressure on him.” — Vinnie Iyer |
| CBS Sports | 2 of 8 panelists pick Ravens | “This is a big game for AFC superiority. The Bills are playing as well as anybody at 3-0, while the Ravens are coming off an impressive road victory over Dallas. The Ravens ran it right at the Cowboys and they will do the same in this one. Josh Allen has been outstanding, but how much will he have the football if Derrick Henry is going well? I think the Ravens run to victory.” — Pete Prisco |
| Pro Football Talk | 2 of 2 panelists pick Ravens | “The Ravens are more desperate, or at least they should be.” — Mike Florio |
| Sports Illustrated | 2 of 6 panelists pick Ravens |
Justin Fields Says Ravens Talked to Bears About Trading for Him
Before Justin Fields was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason, he said the Ravens were among the teams who talked to the Chicago Bears about acquiring him.
Given Fields' ability as a dual-threat quarterback, it makes sense that the Ravens would look into bringing him in as Lamar Jackson's backup. It also makes sense that Fields wouldn't see Baltimore as the best fit for him. Fields was looking to go to a place where he could compete for a starting job.
"I'm not sure of all the teams, but there were a lot of teams that already had solidified quarterbacks, and I didn't want to do that," Fields said on teammate Cam Heyward’s podcast. "I think Chargers were one, Ravens were another. Raiders, they talked a little bit. I don't know too much. Who else was in there I don't know, but a lot of teams had solidified quarterbacks who just got new contracts, so I wasn't really trying to be there."
Fields has helped the surprising Steelers to a 3-0 start. Veteran Russell Wilson was initially named Pittsburgh's starter, but he has been sidelined with a calf injury suffered during the preseason.
Marlon Humphrey Has Returned to Pro Bowl Form
Coming off an injury-hampered 2023 season, three-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey has looked like his old self in 2024.
Humphrey, who had a career-low 65.3 Pro Football Focus grade last season, including a PFF coverage grade of 63.2, has been a bright spot for a Ravens secondary that has gotten off to a slow start this year.
He has the sixth highest-rated cornerback on PFF's Lockdown Report, which measures how well a defender prevents a receiver from getting open but excludes plays where the defender intentionally gives up space to protect the first-down marker or limit yards after the catch to give a better indication of who is locking down receivers the best. Humphrey has a 64% lockdown percentage.
"He was at his best this past week, with a 70.8% lockdown percentage in the win over the Dallas Cowboys, fifth among cornerbacks in Week 3," PFF’s Gordon McGuinness wrote. "An example of how well he's playing came in the first quarter. It came on third-and-15 with 12:18 left in the quarter. Humphrey is physical, staying close to wide receiver Brandin Cooks before swatting the ball away as he tried to make the catch."
