Ravens Are Near Unanimous Pick to Defeat Denver
Looking to bounce back after last week's disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns, the Ravens host a surprising Denver Broncos team that is on a roll.
Behind the league's No. 3-ranked defense and the play of first-round rookie quarterback Bo Nix, Denver (5-3) has won five of its past six and is currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff race, one spot ahead of Baltimore (5-3).
The Ravens, however, are arguably the best team the Broncos have faced thus far, and all but two of the 50 pundits we sampled predicted a Baltimore victory Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium. NFL.com's Adam Rank and CBS Sports' Dave Richard are the two who picked Denver to pull the upset.
The consensus is that the game will be closer than the nine-point spread suggests.
Note: The pundits made their predictions based on the assumption that Lamar Jackson (back/knee), who has not practiced yet this week, will play.
Here's what the pundits are saying about the game:
The Ravens will prevail in a close game.
The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec: "This is quietly a huge game for the Ravens. Coming off a loss and with a desperate and dangerous Bengals team in town four days later on Thursday night, the Ravens really need to take care of business against the Broncos. I think they will, but it will be a close game."
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio: "This game doesn't feel like it will be lopsided. There's a chance the Broncos win the game. I'm not willing to pick the Broncos in the upset, but I do think the Broncos will cover the spread."
The Ravens pass defense will play well enough this week for Baltimore to win.
Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox: "Denver will have to rely on Nix and its passing game to put points on the board. While Baltimore's secondary is vulnerable, I don't expect the Ravens to drop every interception that lands in their hands, as they did against Cleveland. I also expect Baltimore to recognize that 11 carries for Derrick Henry isn't nearly enough."
USA Today’s Tyler Dragon: "The Ravens are coming off a frustrating loss to the Browns that snapped a five-game win streak. Baltimore's pass defense remains an issue. But Denver won't be able to exploit Baltimore through the air. The Ravens get back on track this week."
CBS Sports’ John Breech: "I think we might see Nix take about five steps back this week and that's because he's going to face a Ravens defense that's built to beat him. Right now, the Ravens have the most bizarre defense in the NFL: They're the best in the entire NFL at stopping the run (They're surrendering just 69.9 yards per game), but they rank dead last at stopping the pass (They're giving up 291.4 yards per game). If you have a quarterback who can just remotely throw the ball, you'll have a chance to beat the Ravens, but I'm not sure the Broncos have that."
Bold prediction: Nix will record his first 300-yard passing game ... in a loss.
ESPN’s Seth Walder: "Denver will try to throw on the Ravens, whose defense is much weaker against the pass. The yardage will be there, but I fear it will mostly be in catch-up mode."
History points to Jackson and the Ravens bouncing back after last week's loss.
NFL.com’s Ali Bhanpuri: "Sure, Baltimore will have its head-scratching blips, like last weekend's gut-wrencher in Cleveland or Week 2's collapse to the Raiders at home. But that early loss to Vegas marked just the fourth time Lamar Jackson has dropped back-to-back games in his NFL career -- his .800 win percentage in starts following a loss (16-4) ranks second only to Patrick Mahomes (18-4, .818) in the Super Bowl era (min. 15 such starts) -- and he's never done it twice in the same season. Something else he's never done: Lose to a rookie quarterback. He's a pristine 7-0 against first-year passers."
The Ravens will win in a blowout.
The Athletic's Vic Tafur: "The Broncos defense has overachieved, and I don't see it working out well against an angry Ravens team that will lean on the running of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, and I think the acquisition of WR Diontae Johnson is being slept on. He is always open near the first-down marker. Blowout city."
| Source | Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 11 of 11 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Baltimore Sun | Ravens 27, Broncos 23 | “What looked like a sure win when the schedule came out feels like anything but for the Ravens given Denver’s all-around defensive strength and Bo Nix’s rapid improvement at quarterback. The Ravens have made almost every opposing quarterback look good, and they can’t just count on their offense to light it up against the league’s No. 3 scoring defense. That said, they’re easily the best team the Broncos have played, and they’ll come out with some urgency after losing in Cleveland. Sometimes, it really is just about which team has the better quarterback. Lamar Jackson will be the difference late in a rugged matchup.” — Childs Walker |
| USA Today | 6 of 6 panelists pick Ravens | |
| NFL.com | 5 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “So as salty as the Ravens must feel in letting last week's divisional bout slip away, past precedent suggests they'll rebound on Sunday. The only thing that gives me pause is the ‘DNP’ next to Lamar's name on Wednesday's injury report.” — Ali Bhanpuri |
| NFL Network | 9 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Sporting News | Ravens 26, Broncos 23 | “The Broncos are fielding a sound offense with dual-threat QB Bo Nix playing well, channeling his inner Lamar Jackson. Now, he gets to face the actual Lamar Jackson in a big game for both playoff hopefuls. Nix and Sean Payton will keep Denver in it with some good passing and pass defense, but in the end, Denver's front will be worn down by Derrick Henry.” — Vinnie Iyer |
| CBS Sports | 7 of 8 panelists pick Ravens | “This is surprisingly one of the better games of the week. The Broncos are 5-3, thanks to the defense. But Bo Nix is improving each week. The Ravens can score on anybody, so that's a challenge for the Denver defense. I think Lamar Jackson and the offense get it going again and the defense plays better than it has the past few games.” — Pete Prisco |
| Pro Football Talk | 2 of 2 panelists pick Ravens | “The Denver defense is phenomenal, and I do feel like the Ravens a little bit have fallen back into, ‘We’re gonna throw the ball every play.’ They definitely got into that trap last week.” — Chris Simms |
| Sports Illustrated | 6 of 6 panelists pick Ravens |
NFL Executives Predict Ravens-Lions Super Bowl
ESPN marked the midpoint of the season by asking a number of NFL executives to predict the 2024 division winners and Super Bowl matchup. The insiders think it will be the Ravens versus the Detroit Lions for the Lombardi Trophy.
"Let's do this again. Baltimore was last year's prediction," ESPN's Jeremy Fowler wrote. "Jackson's improvement and the presence of Derrick Henry could validate this year's. Detroit has gone from trendy Super Bowl pick to the expected pick.
"Dark-horse selections favor tried-and-true NFL brands: the Steelers and Packers."
Speaking of the Steelers, who are in first place by a game over the Ravens in the AFC North, some of the same executives who have the Ravens going to the Super Bowl are picking the Steelers to win the division.
"They have more ways to beat you than the Steelers," an AFC executive said. "If you play dime against them, they run it down your throat. And if you load the box, Lamar can beat you from the pocket. He's probably playing his best football. The Ravens' offensive line finally came together. But I'm worried about the defense. They had some complete busts at the end of that [Browns] game."
The Athletic's Analytical Model Ranks Ravens As Second-Biggest Threat to Chiefs in AFC
Using an analytics-based model, The Athletic's Austin Mock concluded that there are four true contenders to dethrone the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC.
Of the four, Mock said the Buffalo Bills and Ravens – in that order – are clearly the top two.
"The Baltimore Ravens may have throttled the Bills in Baltimore earlier this season, but I think the Bills are the biggest threat to dethroning the Chiefs," Mock wrote. "Admittedly, my model doesn't see a huge difference between the two teams — if they played one another today on a neutral field, my model would favor the Bills by a half point — but the Bills have the much more reliable defense. … The Ravens pass defense has been horrendous so far this season.
"Now, I do believe the Ravens offense is better than the Bills, and maybe Lamar Jackson can overcome the current state of the Ravens defense. He is playing the best ball of his career, and that's saying something because he's a two-time MVP. And heck, we haven't even seen this offense with Diontae Johnson yet! But when going up against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, I'd prefer a balanced team that can consistently get stops."
The Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans were also deemed contenders.
