Overwhelming Majority of Pundits Pick Baltimore to Win 'Battle of the Beltways'
It's unlikely anyone circled the Week 6 matchup between the Ravens and Washington Commanders when the NFL schedule was released, but now the "Battle of the Beltways" is being talked about as the Game of the Year and even a potential Super Bowl preview.
Riding a three-game winning streak, the AFC North-leading Ravens (3-2) look like the Super Bowl contender they were expected to be. The reason Sunday's game at M&T Bank Stadium is being hyped is because of the Commanders' surprising start.
NFC East-leading Washington (4-1) has won four straight as rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has taken the league by storm, similar to how Lamar Jackson did in his first full season as a starter in 2019. The Commanders lead the league in scoring at 31 points per game, just ahead of the Ravens (29.4).
The Ravens are easily Daniels and the Commanders' biggest test to this point, and an overwhelming majority of pundits we sampled (46 of 54) believe Baltimore will win.
Here's what pundits are saying about the game:
Jackson could have a big passing game for the second week in a row.
NBC Sports' Chris Simms: "If the Ravens stay with the run, they are going to put Washington in a spot to where it's either going to be like, 'We continue to gash you in the run game because you're worried about the pass game too, or you go all in on the run game and now your secondary isn't all that good and you can't cover Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman.' So this could be another game like I called last week where I said this could be the week probably that Lamar Jackson throws for 350 yards. I could see that happening again this week because I think the Commanders are at a severe disadvantage in that department."
Expect another shootout.
Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox: "The Ravens secondary has struggled without Mike Macdonald running the show, and the Commanders have shown that they can score in a hurry. I have a feeling this will more closely resemble Baltimore's overtime win over Cincinnati than its blowout victory over the Bills."
The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr.: "First to 40 [points] wins again this week for the Ravens, who I think will be able to get Derrick Henry back on track and play some ball control against Commanders Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and Daniels."
The Ravens' rushing attack could overwhelm the Commanders defense.
CBS Sports’ John Breech: "The Commanders problem is that they've given up 5.1 yards per carry on the ground this year. That's the second-worst number in the NFL and it's literally the worst weakness you can have when you're about to face a Baltimore team that leads the NFL in rushing. The Ravens are currently averaging 211.2 yards per game on the ground, which is such an absurd number that I can't even hit that average in Madden. Also, the Ravens are averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Basically, Derrick Henry might not get tackled in this game. Every carry he has might go for a touchdown. If the Ravens are able to run the ball, that will allow them to control the clock, which will keep Daniels off the field, which would be another good thing for Baltimore, because when Daniels is on the field, no one can stop him."
ESPN's Mina Kimes: "The thing that jumps out to me about the Ravens offense against the Commanders defense [is] what the Ravens are doing with their heavy personnel groupings right now when they put multiple tight ends, backs on the field. I just don't know how the Commanders handle that. The Commanders versus 12 personnel, they almost exclusively play nickel – 99 percent of the time this year. If you play the Ravens in nickel in 12, they are happy to run that ball down your throat. In fact, in 12 personnel, they are averaging six yards a carry and .24 EPA per play. … I think particularly running the ball out of those looks is going to be a huge problem for Washington."
The Ravens' "four bigs" present a matchup problem for the Commanders defense.
ESPN's Dan Orlovsky: "The Ravens offense has four bigs when it comes to [tight ends] Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Charlie Kolar, and [fullback] Patrick Ricard. … They have to treat Isaiah Likely as a tight end at times, but then also a wide receiver. But then you have to treat Patrick Ricard as an offensive lineman at times, so you might add another defensive lineman on the field, but then the guy's running routes. I think that's the big challenge for Washington here, how everyone defensively they want to line up. They can't against that set in Baltimore."
Daniels is rolling, but the Ravens have been tough on rookie quarterbacks under John Harbaugh.
ESPN’s Jamison Hensley: "The struggling Ravens defense, which has allowed the seventh-most points per game this season (25.2), faces QB Jayden Daniels and the highest-scoring team in the NFL (31.0). But Baltimore has historically dominated young quarterbacks. Since John Harbaugh became coach in 2008, the Ravens are 23-7 (.767) against rookie starting quarterbacks, which trails only the Steelers (24-5). Baltimore prides itself on how it disguises coverages, which can keep a first-year quarterback off-balance."
Look back on every matchup against a rookie quarterback during the John Harbaugh era.
C.J. Stroud
19-of-33, 184 total yards
Ravens 34, Texans 10 (1/20/2024)
2023 Divisional Round
Dorian Thompson-Robinson - Browns
19-of-36, 145 total yards, 3 INTs
Ravens 28, Browns 3 (10/1/2023)
C.J. Stroud
28-of-44, 262 total yards
Ravens 25, Texans 9 (9/10/2023)
Kenny Pickett
15-of-27, 170 total yards, 1 TD
Ravens 13, Steelers 16 (1/1/2023)
Desmond Ridder
22-of-33, 226 total yards
Ravens 17, Falcons 9 (12/24/2023)
Kenny Pickett
0-for-1, 0 total yards
Ravens 16, Steelers 14 (12/11/2022)
Justin Fields
4-of-11, 102 total yards
Ravens 16, Bears 13 (11/21/2021)
Joe Burrow
19-of-30, 193 total yards, 1 INT
Ravens 27, Bengals 3 (10/11/2020)
Devlin Hodges
9-of-25, 94 total yards
Ravens 28, Steelers 10 (12/29/2019)
Ryan Finley
16-of-30, 189 total yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Ravens 49, Bengals 13 (11/10/2019)
Kyler Murray
25-of-40, 353 total yards
Ravens 23, Cardinals 17 (9/15/2019)
Baker Mayfield
23-of-42, 376 total yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs
Ravens 26, Browns 24 (12/30/2018)
Baker Mayfield
25-of-43, 365 total yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Ravens 9, Browns 12 (10/7/2018)
DeShone Kizer
20-of-37, 181 total yards, 2 INTs
Ravens 27, Browns 10 (12/17/2017)
Mitchell Trubisky
8-of-16, 145 total yards, 1 TD
Ravens 24, Bears 27 (10/15/2017)
DeShone Kizer
15-of-31, 208 total yards, 3 INTs
Ravens 24, Browns 10 (9/17/2017)
Carson Wentz
22-of-42, 178 total yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Ravens 27, Eagles 26 (12/18/2016)
Dak Prescott
27-of-36, 317 total yards, 3 TDs
Ravens 17, Cowboys 27 (11/20/2016)
Cody Kessler
11-of-18, 94 total yards, 1 TD
Ravens 28, Browns 7 (11/10/2016)
Connor Shaw
14-of-28, 186 total yards, 1 INT
Ravens 20, Browns 10 (12/28/2014)
Blake Bortles
21-of-37, 212 total yards, 1 INT
Ravens 20, Jaguars 12 (12/14/2014)
Zach Mettenberger
16-of-27, 179 total yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Ravens 21, Titans 7 (11/9/2014)
Geno Smith
9-of-22, 133 total yards, 2 INTs
Ravens 19, Jets 3 (11/24/2013)
EJ Manuel
10-of-22, 168 total yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Ravens 20, Bills 23 (9/29/2013)
Andrew Luck
28-of-54, 323 total yards, 1 INT
Ravens 29, Colts 9 (1/6/2013)
2012 Wild Card Round
Robert Griffin III
15-of-26, 276 total yards, 1 TDs
Ravens 28, Washington 31 (12/9/2012)
Brandon Weeden
20-of-37, 187 total yards, 2 INTs
Ravens 25, Browns 15 (11/4/2012)
Brandon Weeden
25-of-52, 320 total yards, 1 INT
23-16, Ravens over Browns (9/27/2012)
T.J. Yates
17-of-35, 183 total yards, 3 INTs
Ravens 20, Texans 13 (1/15/2012)
2011 Divisional Round
Any Dalton
22-of-44, 249 total yards
Ravens 24, Bengals 16 (1/1/2012)
Andy Dalton
24-of-45, 405 total yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs
Ravens 31, Bengals 24 (11/20/2011)
Blaine Gabbert
9-of-20, 92 total yards
Ravens 7, Jaguars 12 (10/24/2011)
Colt McCoy
15-of-29, 179 total yards, 3 INTs
Ravens 20, Browns 10 (12/26/2010)
The Ravens prevail in a tight game.
CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco: "This is a proving game for Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. Baltimore has issues on defense that show up each week. Daniels will play well and keep his team in it, but he won't be able to outplay Lamar Jackson. Ravens will win a close one."
Daniels leads the Commanders to the upset.
The Baltimore Sun’s C.J. Doon: "Baltimore felt vulnerable enough on defense to bring in longtime assistant Dean Pees this week, and it could take a little more time to sort out the problems in the secondary. Jayden Daniels frustrates the Ravens' pass rush and makes enough big plays to keep Washington within striking distance before leading a late drive for the game-winning field goal."
| Source | Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 8 of 11 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Baltimore Sun | 3 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “As long as the Bengals have Joe Burrow throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, they’ll be a threat. They’re better than their 0-3 start, especially on offense. The Ravens don’t want to spot Cincinnati a lead and have the game turn into a throwing contest. The good news for the Ravens is they have the right playmakers to punish a Cincinnati defense that has lost a lot of talent over the last few years. Led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, they’ll try to follow the same script that worked against the Cowboys and Bills. The Bengals won’t be the team to stop them.” — Childs Walker |
| USA Today | 6 of 6 panelists pick Ravens | |
| NFL.com | 5 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing offense (211.2 ypg) and rushing defense (60.4 ypg). The Commanders have proven quite capable of pounding the rock, ranking second at 178.4 ground yards per game, but can they stop a pounding? The early returns aren't promising, with Head Coach Dan Quinn's defense yielding 5.1 yards per carry, the second-worst mark in the league. To be fair, some advanced statistics are more favorable to Washington's run D, but I still don't trust this unit to slow down the prolific pairing of Lamar and Derrick Henry.” — Gennaro Filice |
| NFL Network | 9 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Sporting News | Ravens 31, Commanders 27 | "This is the best Battle of the Beltway ever with Heisman-winning, dual-threat MVP candidate Jayden Daniels facing off with Heisman-winning dual-threat two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. The defenses have started to show plenty of holes, meaning the offensive fireworks of chunk runs and big pass plays will not disappoint. Jackson's experience and help from Derrick Henry give him a slight edge over Daniels, who is still on the road despite a short local trip.” — Vinnie Iyer |
| CBS Sports | 7 of 8 panelists pick Ravens | “This is the big game of the week, featuring a surprise Commanders team against a Ravens team that is one of the best in the league. This is a proving game for Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. Baltimore has issues on defense that show up each week. Daniels will play well and keep his team in it, but he won't be able to outplay Lamar Jackson. Ravens will win a close one.” — Pete Prisco |
| Pro Football Talk | 2 of 2 panelists pick Ravens | “It's the game of the day. Can the Ravens avoid their fourth-quarter foibles?” — Mike Florio |
| Sports Illustrated | 5 of 6 panelists pick Ravens |
Analytics Indicate Ravens' Pass Defense Is Better Than One Might Think
One of the more shocking developments this season is that the Ravens are second-to-last in the league in pass defense. However, a deeper dive into the numbers by ESPN's Aaron Schatz indicates that the unit is not as much of a concern as one might think.
"It's not [bad], it's average," Schatz said of the pass defense on “Glenn Clark Radio.” "I know that seems like a shock, but if you look at efficiency on a per play basis and you adjust for schedule, which is really important, then they are an average pass defense."
Given the talent in the secondary and the defense as a whole, it's reasonable to believe the pass defense will be even better than average as the season progresses. The Ravens have faced some of the best quarterbacks and wide receivers in the NFL through the first five weeks.
On a side note, Schatz noted in an article on ESPN.com that the Ravens are the sixth-best 3-2 team by DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) since 1979.
"The Ravens are going to have to live with two losses in their first five games," Schatz wrote. "First, they lost by the length of Isaiah Likely's toe against the defending champion Chiefs. Then they lost a game to the Raiders, despite outgaining Las Vegas by 123 yards with the same number of turnovers (1). Follow that up with three wins over strong opponents, including a blowout of the Bills, and Baltimore comes out as the second-highest team in DVOA so far (behind Minnesota but ahead of Kansas City). That also makes it one of the highest-rated 3-2 teams in DVOA history.
"At this point, it's hard to imagine the Ravens not rebounding from their 0-2 start to make the postseason."
Rashod Bateman-Jackson Connection on the Rise
The Ravens showed their faith in Rashod Bateman by giving the wide receiver a two-year contract extension in the offseason, and the 2021 first-round pick has rewarded their belief in him.
On an offense that is spreading the ball around, Bateman is second on the team in receiving yards (202), first in yards per catch (15.5), second in targets (22), and second in touchdown catches (two). He leads the league in separation percentage at 72.7.
Bateman is coming off his best game of the season, as he had four catches for 58 yards and a touchdown in last week's 41-38 overtime win over Cincinnati. He converted a third-and-5 in overtime with a 15-yard reception that moved the Ravens into Bengals territory.
Bateman's solid start to the season has quieted the talk that he and Jackson lack chemistry.
"It takes time," Bateman told The Sun’s Brian Wacker. "Everybody is so quick to judge. People who think Lamar and I don't have a connection or we don't have a bond is kind of insane to me. Nobody is in here every day. Me and Lamar have been close since I've been here."
After being hampered by injuries his first three seasons, Bateman entered this season healthy and motivated.
"I feel great," Bateman said. "I feel like I'm a rookie all over again. I got through the nicks and the bruises and this is actually my first real, true season. People can say what they want, but people are judging me off of time I barely played and barely got opportunities."
