Majority of Pundits Favor Eagles in Potential Super Bowl Preview
Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley shined in primetime games last week, and the national spotlight will be on the two elite running backs again when they share the field Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium.
Barkley's Philadelphia Eagles (9-2) are one of the hottest teams in the league, as the NFC East leaders have won seven straight games by an average of 15.3 points. They haven't lost since Sept. 29, but they'll face their toughest test to date in Henry's Ravens (8-4), who have won eight of their past 10 games.
Baltimore is a three-point favorite and Lamar Jackson is 23-1 against NFC teams, but a majority of the pundits we sampled (31 of 54) picked the Eagles to prevail in the I-95 showdown between Super Bowl contenders.
Here's what pundits are saying about the game:
Lamar Jackson will outduel Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and lead the Ravens to victory.
CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco: "This is the game of the week, featuring two dynamic offenses that both have outstanding running games. But the edge at quarterback goes to Lamar Jackson, which will be the difference in this game. He will make some big-time plays with his legs and his right arm to pull out a shootout victory for the Ravens."
NFL.com’s Tom Blair: "If we get the titanic rushing clash that we deserve, I'll roll with Jackson putting his team over the edge in the end."
The Baltimore Sun’s Bennett Conlin: "Lamar Jackson owns the NFC, and I'm expecting more of the same Sunday as Baltimore reaffirms its spot as an AFC championship contender despite currently sitting in second in its division."
Hurts will outduel Jackson and lead the Eagles to victory.
The Athletic's Vic Tafur: "Jalen Hurts has been more of a game manager the last five games (all wins) with six touchdowns and one interception, and this should be the week he lets loose and hits A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert and Barkley for touchdowns against a bad Ravens secondary and linebacker group. He might even overshadow Jackson and Barkley."
The Eagles will win because they have the better defense.
NBC Sports' Chris Simms: "The Eagles defense is awesome. They're one of the best in football. I do think they're going to pose problems for Baltimore's offense. I know Baltimore wants to run the ball; I don't think they're going to be able to do that all that easily. The Eagles are so well-coached on the back end. They're creative on the back end too. I think the Eagles can run the ball on Baltimore, and that's going to start an avalanche of some problems for them."
The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec: "I'm not sure I've gotten more than three or four Ravens games right all year. When I take them to win, they lose. And vice versa. So Ravens fans will probably be happy to know that I think the Eagles will win Sunday. I think both offenses will come to play, but Philadelphia's defense is much easier to trust than Baltimore's."
The Baltimore Sun’s C.J. Doon: "Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry rival Hurts and Barkley as the league's top backfield pairing, but the Eagles' defense, led by Jalen Carter, is a much stiffer test than the Ravens'. Hurts joins Daniel Jones as the only NFC quarterbacks to beat Jackson."
USA Today’s Lorenzo Reyes: "Baltimore's defense has some holes. Roquan Smith's availability could be problematic, too. I think the wrong team is favored here, even on the road."
Bold prediction: The Eagles will hold Jackson to a QBR of under 55.
ESPN’s Seth Walder: "Even if cornerback Darius Slay Jr. (concussion) isn't able to play, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean should be able to hamper receivers Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers."
The Ravens have the edge because they are better at stopping the run.
USA Today’s Jordan Mendoza: "Derrick Henry vs. Saquon Barkley is going to be must-see TV. While it's a battle between the top rushing offenses in the league, Baltimore is better at stopping the run. It's a shootout, but the Ravens do just enough to win a thriller."
CBS Sports’ John Breech: "There are only seven teams in the NFL surrendering less than 100 rushing yards per game this year and two of them are playing in this game. The Ravens are giving up just 77.9 yards per game, which ranks second in the NFL while the Eagles rank seventh overall, surrendering 99.5 yards per game. I feel like that small edge might be enough to push the Ravens over the top."
The Ravens coming off a Monday night game on the West Coast gives the Eagles the advantage.
Bleacher Report’s Vince Michelino: "The Eagles look like the lone NFC team that can challenge Detroit, thanks to a balanced roster, elite game-wrecking pass rush and Saquon Barkley's historic rushing pace. They'll catch Baltimore at perhaps the right time on a short week."
| Source | Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 7 of 11 panelists pick Eagles | |
| Baltimore Sun | 3 of 5 panelists pick Eagles | “There is talent all over the field for these two offenses. The separator, of course, will be on defense. Baltimore’s continues to give up yards by the chunk. Philadelphia is No. 1 in the league in yards allowed per game (274.6) and No. 2 in yards per play (4.7). The Eagles are also balanced against the run and pass, allowing just 99.2 rushing yards and 175.5 passing yards per game. A slow start and self-inflicted wounds will be costly against a team of the Eagles’ ilk.” — Brian Wacker |
| USA Today | 6 of 6 panelists pick Eagles | |
| NFL.com | 3 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “Philly has turned into a juggernaut over the past seven weeks -- but it hasn't yet faced a challenge quite like stopping Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Of course, Baltimore hasn't faced a challenge quite like stopping Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. (I'm not quite ready to graduate Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' ground attack, whom the Eagles and Ravens each defeated this season, to that level yet.) But the Ravens feel a bit more battle tested.” — Tom Blair |
| NFL Network | 7 of 10 panelists pick Eagles | |
| Sporting News | Eagles 27, Ravens 24 | “The Eagles have a dangerous downfield passing game with Jalen Hurts and have a red-hot running back, Saquon Barkley. As great as Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have been together, Hurts and Barkley are surging as a dynamic duo at the right time. Both teams stop the run rather well, so it will come down to the best matchups for receivers. Philadelphia has the clear edge there in this short road trip.” — Vinnie Iyer |
| CBS Sports | 7 of 8 panelists pick Ravens | “This is the game of the week, featuring two dynamic offenses that both have outstanding running games. But the edge at quarterback goes to Lamar Jackson, which will be the difference in this game. He will make some big-time plays with his legs and his right arm to pull out a shootout victory for the Ravens.” — Pete Prisco |
| Pro Football Talk | 1 of 2 panelists pick Eagles | “I just think the Eagles are a better football team. I think they’re more talented. I’m going with the Eagles.” —Chris Simms |
| Sports Illustrated | 3 of 6 panelists pick Ravens |
Looking at Where the Ravens Defense Is Trending Upward
The Ravens defense has been uncharacteristically porous for most of the season, especially against the pass, but the unit has made significant strides this month.
"In wins against the Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos — the NFL's sixth-, 13th- and 19th-ranked offenses, respectively, according to FTN's opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics — and a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (22nd), the Ravens measured out as an upper-tier defense," The Baltimore Banner's Jonas Shaffer wrote. "Eighth in yards per play allowed (5.0), according to TruMedia. Sixth in success rate (a measure of how often plays led to positive expected points added for the defense). Eleventh in EPA per play. Not quite elite, but good enough to wonder whether the Ravens might have turned a corner."
Shaffer looked at the positive trends for the defense. Here are a couple excerpts:
Sacks are coming, and so are pressures.
"Over the Ravens' first two months, they racked up a lot of sacks without a lot of disruption. Through Week 8, they were fourth in quarterback takedowns (24) but 27th in pressure rate (29%), according to TruMedia, a discrepancy largely explained by the sheer number of drop-backs that opposing quarterbacks took in blowouts.
"In November, the Ravens are second in sacks (15) and fifth in pressure rate (37.7%). And they're not beating up entirely on sad-sack offensive lines, either. The Broncos have the NFL's second-best overall pass blocking grade this season, according to PFF. The Chargers rank 13th. The Bengals are 24th, though quarterback Joe Burrow's quick trigger can make him tough to pressure. The Steelers are 26th."
Explosive plays are less explosive.
"The Ravens' defense still has an explosive-play problem. They allowed a run of at least 12 yards or a completion of at least 16 yards on 11.6% of their plays in November — a slight improvement from their first two months (12.9%, fourth worst in the NFL), but still just the league's 19th-best rate since Week 9.
"But if there is a silver lining to that recent form, it's that opponents' explosive passing plays were less explosive. Over the Ravens' first eight weeks, opponents averaged nearly five 20-plus-yard completions per game (39 total). Over the past four weeks? Less than three per game (11 total). Over the past two weeks, their first with cornerback Tre'Davious White in the rotation and Ar'Darius Washington starting next to Kyle Hamilton at safety? Less than two per game (three total)."
Ravens Get Super Bowl Love From 'NFL GameDay' Analysts
The "NFL GameDay" crew was given a do-over on their preseason Super Bowl predictions. None of the six analysts picked the Ravens initially, but two now have Baltimore hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
"I had picked the Texans over the Eagles, and the Texans are just finding ways to lose right now," Kurt Warner said. "The Baltimore Ravens, to me, are the favorite in the AFC. So I am going to go with a preview of this weekend, the Baltimore Ravens over the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl."
Gerald McCoy changed his prediction from the New York Jets over the Detroit Lions to the Ravens over the Lions.
