Dissecting Why Ravens Defense Has Struggled
It's not surprising that the Ravens defense would experience a drop-off after a historically dominant 2023 season, but it's shocking just how far the unit has fallen this season.
Last year, the Ravens defense was the first in NFL history to lead the league in points per game, sacks, and takeaways. This year, the defense under first-year Defensive Coordinator Zach Orr is ranked 27th in yards allowed and last against the pass.
Athlon Sports’ Doug Farrar took an in-depth look at why Baltimore's defense has regressed. Here are some of his takeaways:
Zone defense has become a nightmare.
"The tape and the numbers do not lie; this is kind of gross. When in Cover-2, Cover-3, Cover-4, or Cover-6 in 2024, the Ravens have allowed a league-high 16 attempts of 20 or more air yards on a league-high 28 targets for 534 yards (only the Indianapolis Colts have allowed more), a league-high four touchdowns (tied with the Los Angeles Rams and the Houston Texans), no interceptions, a league-worst passer rating of 141.4, and a league-worst Passing EPA allowed of +32.32. In 2023 under [Defensive Coordinator Mike] Macdonald, and under those same 'deep passes vs. zone' situations, the Ravens allowed 10 completions on 39 attempts for 331 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, an opponent passer rating of 49.6 (by far the NFL's best), and an opponent Passing EPA of -10.05 (wildly the NFL's best; the San Francisco 49ers ranked second at -0.67)."
The defense is not nearly as diverse.
"Macdonald's superpower as the Ravens' defensive coordinator was his ability to balance multiple fronts with multiple coverage concepts, have them change from pre-snap to post-snap, and still have everyone on point for their individual responsibilities. It was a primary reason that defense was an absolute joy to watch. From simulated and overload pressures, to the most subtle yet effective coverage switches, you could never get a real bead on what Macdonald was doing. Now, things are more static pre- and post-snap. That defense has gone from modern to retro, and not in a good way. Maybe it's the focus on playing fast that has Orr fixated on more simplicity. Regardless of the reason, it's much easier to figure things out. Even when the Ravens bring an extra linebacker in a blitz or mug look, and drop another linebacker into coverage — something Macdonald had dialed up at a master's degree level — the results don't really bear out."
The edge-rusher situation has become ... well, edgy.
"Thank goodness for 11-year veteran Kyle Van Noy and his seven sacks and 35 total pressures. Without them, the Ravens would have precious little quarterback disruption from their edge defenders. Odafe Oweh has five sacks and 27 total pressures, but after that, it drops off pretty severely. The team obviously thought it had a plan beyond Jadeveon Clowney, who had his best NFL season in 2023 under Macdonald and signed a two-year, $20 million contract with the Carolina Panthers this offseason. Maybe both sides would like a do-over at this point. There's no replacing Clowney's 11 sacks and 78 total pressures last season."
The 'Lamar Jackson Effect' Means Ravens Can Win Super Bowl Without Dominant Defense
Despite the Ravens having a historically good offense and Lamar Jackson playing at a ridiculously high level, some pundits believe the porous defense will prevent Baltimore from winning the Super Bowl.
History suggests they could be right unless the defense improves. ESPN’s Jamison Hensley noted that no team has even won the Super Bowl with the league's worst pass defense.
Press Box’s Glenn Clark rejected the notion that the Ravens can't win it all this season without a dramatic defensive turnaround. His belief is rooted in what he called the "Lamar Jackson Effect."
"I can't hear the arguments that the Ravens 'can't win the Super Bowl' with this defense," Clark wrote. "As I wrote last week, their margin for error is smaller, no doubt! But even if the defense isn't better, the Lamar Jackson Effect is real. He's THAT good. … While we obsess over the struggles of the Ravens' defense, we need to recognize that the value of Lamar Jackson is overwhelmingly more significant than the value of any defense. That's why the Ravens came into the week with an offensive DVOA (37.7%) nearly twice as impactful as not only the second best DVOA offense (Washington's 21.6%) but also the best DVOA defense (Minnesota's -23.5%).
"Yes, I'm worried about the defense, too. But I'm sick of obsessing over it and making it the focal point of every conversation. … The defense will improve or it won't. But if we're sitting around a fire on a Saturday night and talking about football, we should be talking about Lamar Jackson and how freaking lucky we are to spend our Sunday afternoons (or Thursday nights or Sunday nights or Monday nights or, yeah, Saturday afternoons and, holy hell, Wednesday afternoons this season) watching this remarkable human play football."
Clark noted that "lots of pedestrian to bad defenses have won Super Bowls."
"Those teams haven't always had breathtakingly brilliant quarterbacks," Clark wrote. "Eli Manning had a hell of a run to help the 2011 Giants overcome the 29th-ranked pass defense. The 2012 Ravens got one of the best playoff runs of all time from Joe Flacco to help overcome a unit that was in the lower half of the league in overall, pass and run defense. It can be done. And if there's someone I'd trust to do it at the moment, it would be the guy who is well on his way to a third NFL MVP award."
Ravens-Lions Is Top Vote-Getter in NFL.com Analysts' Super Bowl Predictions
Speaking of the Super Bowl, NFL.com analysts made their midseason predictions for which teams will compete for and capture the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans in February.
Six analysts picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl. Only the Detroit Lions (nine) and Kansas City Chiefs (seven) received more votes. Ravens-Lions was the most popular matchup.
Here's a look at the six pundits who picked the Ravens to win the championship:
Jack Andrade: Ravens over Lions
"Lamar Jackson gets his ring as Baltimore ekes out another thrilling Superdome Super Bowl win."
Tom Blair: Ravens over Lions.
"Luckily, my preseason pick remains viable, so I'll repeat it here. If this were a regular-season game on the December docket, I would probably swap winners, but the teams are close enough – and Baltimore's offense seems special enough – that I'll stick with Lamar Jackson and Co. as the future champs."
David Carr: Ravens over Lions.
"Lamar Jackson caps his third MVP campaign with a Lombardi Trophy, ending Detroit's fairytale season by leading the Ravens on a game-winning touchdown drive in the fourth quarter."
Dante Koplowitz-Fleming: Ravens over Lions.
"The Lions offense does its job, but Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry can't be stopped, as they guarantee their place in Canton with a Lombardi Trophy."
Steve Mariucci: Ravens over Lions.
"It's fitting that two of the NFL's most balanced teams meet in the biggest game, where decision-making goes under the microscope. While there will be no shortage of big plays from either side, ultimately, John Harbaugh's Super Bowl experience makes the difference.
Marc Ross: Ravens over Lions.
"A matchup between the NFL's two best offenses, Ravens-Lions should provide nonstop action. But Lamar Jackson proves to be too much, capping a second consecutive MVP season by capturing his first Super Bowl MVP."
Four analysts picked the Lions to beat the Ravens in the Super Bowl.
Why Didn't Ravens Trade for a Pass Rusher?
ESPN's Ben Solak revisited last week's trade deadline and looked at why the Ravens didn't acquire a pass rusher.
The Ravens reportedly were close to making a deal with the Miami Dolphins to bring back defensive tackle Calais Campbell, but Solak contended that additions aren't necessary.
"The Ravens have the tools in-house to solve their pass defense problems. I firmly believe that," Solak wrote. "Rookie corner Nate Wiggins is playing better every week and needs a bigger role. Slot corner Arthur Maulet, back from a knee injury, is getting up to speed. The Ravens should get better in coverage outright, and when they do, they'll buy a little more time for players such as Nnamdi Madubuike, Kyle Van Noy and Odafe Oweh (in whom I'm still holding out some hope) to get to the quarterback.
"Short of Maxx Crosby, there was never going to be a defensive end on the market who could fix the pass defense problems in one fell swoop."
Quick Hits
Yesterday's Most Read: News & Notes: John Harbaugh Gives Update on Kyle Hamilton
- Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman discussed what made Ray Lewis a nightmare for offenses.
- Madubuike was named African Player of the Week by ESPN’s Leonard Solms.
- Jonathan Ogden was the subject of the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Gold Jacket Spotlight.
