Ravens Are Near Unanimous Pick to Eliminate Archrival
If having momentum entering the playoffs means anything, the Ravens should feel good about their chances in Saturday night's AFC Wild-Card round game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium.
The surging Ravens have won four straight by an average of 23 points, including a 34-17 victory over Pittsburgh three weeks ago. The struggling Steelers have lost four straight and averaged just 14.3 points during that span.
The overwhelming consensus is that the teams will continue their respective trajectories.
All but two of the 58 pundits we sampled predicted a victory for the Ravens, who are 9.5-point favorites. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Seth Wickersham were the dissenters.
Here's what pundits are saying about the game:
The Ravens will win convincingly.
Bleacher Report’s Ian Hanford: "The Steelers typically find a way to muddy things up enough to stay close, but the vibe around this team couldn't be more off. Ravens win and send a message that this year's team may finally put its best foot forward in the postseason."
The Steelers will keep it close, but the Ravens will prevail.
CBS Sports John Breech: "If there's one game where I could see a big upset happening this weekend, it's this one. On one hand, that sounds absolutely ridiculous because the Steelers have forgotten how to play football over the past four weeks. On the other hand, it doesn't sound ridiculous at all because Lamar Jackson always seems to forget how to play football during the postseason. … If the Steelers had shown any signs of life during their four-game losing streak to end the season, I might have picked them to pull off the upset, but instead, I'm going to take the Ravens in a nail-biter."
The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec: "I still think this is the Ravens' game to win. However, I'm surprised by how many people think this could be a one-sided affair. To me, this game will be in doubt deep into the fourth quarter. Just about all of the matchups between the two teams are. The Ravens are just playing better on both sides of the ball, so I give them the edge in a 23-20 type of game. I fully expect some anxious moments at M&T Bank Stadium Saturday night for the home fans."
The Baltimore Banner’s C.J. Doon: "All these teams do is play nail-biters. I'm not expecting that to change anytime soon, especially with the pressure of the postseason ramped up. In a fun reversal from Week 11, it's Justin Tucker who saves the day for the Ravens this time around."
The Steelers defense will have a difficult time slowing the Ravens offense, even without WR Zay Flowers.
NFL.com’s Nick Shook: "These Ravens can beat opponents in a wide variety of fashions, and Pittsburgh's defense hasn't lived up to its reputation in the second half of the season, especially in their final month's worth of games, allowing 27.3 points and 380.5 yards per contest. The Steelers finished the regular season tied for the league lead in takeaways with 33, but are facing a Ravens offense that ranks third with just 11 giveaways. Numbers wise, this isn't a good matchup. The Steelers have T.J. Watt, but he's been invisible in the last three weeks, failing to register a sack or QB hit in that span. Jackson, meanwhile, takes the field as an every-down threat to end the Steelers' season, even without the participation of Pro Bowl wide receiver Zay Flowers, who will miss the game due to a knee injury. It will take quite a turnaround to prevent the Steelers from watching their season slip away on Saturday."
The Baltimore Sun’s Childs Walker: "Zay Flowers won't play, and that's a big deal, but not such a big deal that the Ravens won't survive without their Pro Bowl wide receiver. They'll still have the dominant playmakers on the field in Jackson and Derrick Henry, and in Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely, they have pass catchers gifted enough to replace much of Flowers' production."
Derrick Henry is a critical factor.
Pro Football Focus: "In their Week 16 clash, Henry ran rampant against the Steelers, recording seven explosive runs of 10 or more yards — a season-high for the bruising back. Pittsburgh's defense struggled to bring him down, allowing eight forced missed tackles on his rushing attempts, the second-most Henry has recorded in a game this year. His 74 rushing yards after contact tied the highest total the Steelers have allowed to a single player this season, underscoring the need for Pittsburgh to tighten up their tackling and contain Henry in the backfield."
Bold prediction: Ravens TE Mark Andrews will catch six or more passes, matching or surpassing a season high.
ESPN’s Seth Walder: "After his slow usage to start the season, Andrews has run a route on a higher percentage of Ravens pass plays. His advanced metrics are also still strong. Andrews has an 80 open score this season, narrowly beating out George Kittle for the highest among tight ends (via ESPN's receiver scores)."
| Source | Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 8 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Baltimore Sun | 5 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “If Lamar Jackson plays close to the peaks he reached this season and avoids turnovers, Pittsburgh’s sputtering offense won’t keep up. The Steelers have the pass rush and the big-play capability to make this a closer game than the point spread would suggest. We’ve seen them upend superior Ravens teams in the past five years. They just won’t score quite enough on a cold night in Baltimore.” — Childs Walker |
| Baltimore Banner | 5 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “Even if Pittsburgh makes life difficult for Jackson, I’m not sure where the Steelers can turn for reliable offense themselves. Their run game was one of the NFL’s worst over the second half of the season, and no one inside M&T Bank Stadium would be surprised if wide receiver George Pickens checks out after a rough start. That would leave Pittsburgh in a very bad place.” — Jonas Shaffer |
| USA Today | 6 of 6 panelists pick Ravens | |
| NFL.com | 5 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “The Steelers simply don't have much to hang their hat on right now, while everything is seemingly clicking for their opponent. So unless the Ravens end up beating themselves – by giving up on the run game, missing kicks, reverting back to their early-season defensive ways, etc. – I have a tough time seeing Pittsburgh advance to Round 2.”— Ali Bhanpuri |
| NFL Network | 10 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Sporting News | Ravens 30, Steelers 17 | “The Steelers have lost four consecutive games, and after playing QB just right all season with Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, Mike Tomlin is suddenly being second-guessed despite yet another above-.500 playoff campaign. The Ravens are riding a four-game winning streak, and Lamar Jackson has been locked in more than ever. Baltimore's pass rush is getting hot at the right time, and Wilson has hit a worrisome wall.” — Vinnie Iyer |
| CBS Sports | 8 of 8 panelists pick Ravens | “The Steelers have struggled on offense lately, which is an issue against a high-scoring offense led by Lamar Jackson. But it's tough playing a third game against a division opponent. I think the Steelers will hang around in this one. It's close, but the Ravens take it.” — Pete Prisco |
| Pro Football Talk | 2 of 2 panelists pick Ravens | “While the Lamar Jackson postseason narrative and the point spread will put extra pressure on the home team, the Steelers seem to be out of gas. (Still, I’ve gone with the cover because I can’t rule out the Steelers finding a way to stun the No. 3 seed.)” — Mike Florio |
| Sports Illustrated | 6 of 6 panelists pick Ravens |
Peter Schrager Makes Case for Marlon Humphrey Being Defensive Player of the Year Candidate
One of the key players in the Ravens' dramatic defensive turnaround in the second half of the season is four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who is arguably having the best season of his career.
"Good Morning Football's" Peter Schrager said Humphrey should be in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year.
"There's so much talk about [the Denver Broncos'] Patrick Surtain as Defensive Player of the Year as a corner, and he's been excellent. No buzz at all, but just making the argument for Marlon Humphrey for Defensive Player of the Year," Schrager said. "Six interceptions, two forced fumbles, every big moment this season on defense it seems like Marlon Humphrey's got his hands in it."
Ravens Have Become Popular Pick to Win Super Bowl
The staffs at The Ringer and Sports Illustrated made their Super Bowl predictions, and the Ravens were among the teams who were a popular pick. Here are some excerpts:
The Ringer's Steven Ruiz: Ravens over Eagles
"The Ravens have been my pick to win the Super Bowl throughout the season, and I'm not switching it up now. Potential trips to Buffalo and Kansas City in back-to-back weeks would have broken past versions of this Baltimore team, but with Derrick Henry now in tow, they're no longer a one-man show on offense. The defense has gotten its act together over the past month or so and is playing at an elite level, and the offensive line is no longer committing penalties at a problematic rate. This is the most complete Ravens team Lamar Jackson has led into the postseason, and he's playing the best ball of his career."
The Ringer's Diante Lee: Ravens over Eagles
"In Derrick Henry, the team finally has a player who can take the burden off of Jackson in the playoffs. Henry can tilt the balance of a game on his own, and his presence makes Jackson a more valuable runner and passer. That duo should be enough to slay the dragon at Arrowhead Stadium and meet up with Philadelphia, who'll get to New Orleans thanks to the matchup problems they pose for each of the NFC's top teams. Super Bowl 59 will put a bow on a year marked by excellent running backs (with Henry vs. Saquon Barkley), and it'll be capped off by Jackson silencing his playoff doubters for good."
The Ringer's Danny Kelly: Ravens over Lions
"Lamar's got Derrick Henry by his side, a bevy of talented pass catchers to throw to, and a resurgent defense on his side. It's not going to be an easy road for Baltimore as the 3-seed, but no team has more ways to beat you."
Sports Illustrated's Michael Rosenberg: Ravens 31, Eagles 23
"For all the talk about Lamar Jackson's playoff record, keep this in mind: Jackson has played in six playoff games. If you remove Jackson from the box scores, the Ravens' leading rusher in those games ran for 23, 22, 43, 42, 66 and 20 yards. Jackson can do everything, but he shouldn't have to do everything — and this year, he won't, because he has Derrick Henry. Teams facing the Ravens now face three dynamic offensive components: Jackson's passing, Jackson's running and Henry's running. No matter how defenses commit their resources, the Ravens have an answer."
Sports Illustrated's Andrew Brandt: Ravens 33, Eagles 27
"In the AFC, I continue to believe it's the Ravens' time. Lamar is Lamar, but there is much more than him, more than they've had in this long run. They are a team now built for the playoffs with the late-game pounding from Derrick Henry and a defense rounding into form at the right time. … Teams that are 100 miles apart will meet in New Orleans for the Super Bowl, with the Ravens eeking out a slight win over the Eagles."
Sports Illustrated's Mitch Goldich: Ravens 30, Lions 24
"The Lions only need to win two home games to advance to the Super Bowl, and I think they will. But once they get to the big game, I'll take Jackson. I'll take John Harbaugh's experience. I'll take the healthier team hitting its stride on both sides of the ball. I'll take an offense good enough to hang in a shootout and a defense good enough to get the one timely stop that decides the season."
Jackson Finishes Regular Season at No. 1 in Weekly QB Rankings
Pundits and fans continue to debate whether the MVP award should go to Jackson or to the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen. Shook gave the nod to Jackson, who took the No. 1 spot in his weekly quarterback rankings. Allen was No. 2.
"Atop the QB Index, two quarterbacks have traded punches all year long in the battle for No. 1," Shook wrote. "Jackson landed the final few clinching blows in the regular season, playing at a level that seemed impossible even for him. He shattered his previous career-high marks in passing yards and passing touchdowns, and landed less than 100 yards shy of a 1,000-yard rushing season. He closed the regular season with 12 passing touchdowns over his final four games, powering an offense that has put 31 or more points on the board in each of those contests.
"With Jackson serving as the engine, the driver, the fuel and the tires, the Ravens' racing machine is peaking at the perfect time. Perhaps this is the year he finally gets over the postseason hump, because regardless of voter fatigue, he's my 2024 MVP."
Patrick Ricard Has Played Key Role in Henry's Monster Season
Henry and Jackson are a dynamic duo, but Henry and five-time Pro fullback Patrick Ricard also make for a formidable tandem.
Ricard has been a significant factor in Henry rushing for 1,921 yards this season, the second-highest total of his nine-year career.
The Baltimore Banner's Jonas Shaffer noted that Ricard has been on the field for all but one of Henry's league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns.
"Their strength is almost undeniable," Shaffer wrote. "The 247-pound Henry and 300-pound Ricard have shared the field on only 329 offensive plays this season, according to TruMedia, less than a third of the Ravens' total workload (1,055 plays). Defenses know what their presence suggests; all but 23 of those Henry-Ricard plays have been a run call or a play-action pass.
"Opponents just can't stop it. With Ricard on the field, Henry rushed for nearly as many yards (1,324 yards) and first downs (68) as the Las Vegas Raiders did in the 2024 regular season. He rushed for more touchdowns (15) than 14 teams. And he rushed for more yards per carry (6.2) than every team; only two rushing attacks outside Baltimore came within even a yard of Henry's season-long average on Ricard-aided carries."
