Ravens Are Near Unanimous Pick to Win at Houston
The Ravens kept their AFC North title hopes alive with last week's convincing win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. They'll look to increase their chances of repeating as division champions when they take on the Texans in Houston today.
If the Ravens win their final two games, they would need the Steelers to lose one of their final two to win the division. The Steelers host the Kansas City Chiefs in the first game of today's Christmas doubleheader.
All but two of the 57 pundits we sampled predicted the Ravens (10-5) to beat the Texans (9-6), who have already clinched the AFC South title. NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah and ESPN's Seth Wickersham are the two who picked Houston.
Here's what pundits are saying about the game:
The Ravens will prevail, but it might not be pretty.
Baltimore Positive’s Luke Jones: "In the John Harbaugh era, the Ravens are a so-so 16-13 in games immediately following a clash with Pittsburgh, which should serve as a warning coming off an emotional victory and playing on the road on a short week. The last thing Baltimore wants is to follow a victory over the Steelers by stubbing its toe, especially if the Chiefs offer up a Christmas present earlier in the day. You never quite know what to expect for a typical Thursday game, and this has the added element of being on a holiday, which is why I'm not expecting either team to be particularly sharp. That said, I'll trust the better and more experienced quarterback and the superior running game to get the job done on the road."
The Ravens offense has the edge over the Texans' banged-up defense.
The Baltimore Banner's Jonas Shaffer: "The Ravens have the NFL's most efficient offense, according to FTN. The Texans have the NFL's most efficient defense. Sounds like a fair fight, right? Well, not when one side is in good health and the other is moving on to emergency starters. The Ravens' only real question mark is wide receiver Zay Flowers' shoulder injury, but Coach John Harbaugh was optimistic Sunday that he would be available. The Texans? They're down a starting linebacker, two starting slot cornerbacks and likely a starting defensive tackle. Oh, and star defensive end Will Anderson Jr. might not be fully healthy, either."
If the game is a shootout, the Texans won't be able to keep up with the Ravens.
CBS Sports’ John Breech: "The Texans have struggled this year when a game turns into a shootout and there's a good chance that's going to happen against the Ravens. Baltimore is averaging 30.1 points per game, which isn't good news for a Texans team that's 1-6 this season when their opponent scores 22 points or more."
Losing WR Tank Dell to a season-ending injury last week will be tough for the Texans to overcome.
NFL.com’s Brooke Cerosimo: "A big concern is the fact that quarterback C.J. Stroud will be without (another) one of his top wideouts (Tank Dell) against a Ravens pass defense that has improved of late. Baltimore has allowed fewer than 200 yards through the air in four of its last five games (with the Chargers barely clearing that threshold with 202 in Week 12) and the second-lowest passer rating to opposing QBs (78.4) since Week 11."
Bleacher Report’s Ian Hanford: "I just don't see Houston putting up the points necessary to beat Baltimore here. The Ravens average around seven points per game more than Houston on the season, and C.J. Stroud just lost another weapon after Tank Dell suffered a devastating injury last week."
The Ravens defense presents a formidable challenge for the Texans offense.
The Baltimore Sun’s C.J. Doon: "C.J. Stroud will have to play at an MVP level to keep this one close, and while he's certainly capable, the Ravens should be able to create enough pressure and play tight coverage to limit Nico Collins and Houston's depleted passing game. Joe Mixon has also struggled to find running room recently, so there are not many answers against a steadily improving Baltimore defense."
Bold prediction: The Ravens will hold the Texans under 14 points.
ESPN’s Seth Walder: "From Weeks 1-9, the Ravens could barely stop the pass, ranking 28th in EPA allowed per dropback. But from Week 10 on, they rank first in the same category. The Texans don't have a great ground game, despite a strong start to the season by Joe Mixon. I expect they'll struggle to move the ball against Baltimore."
Derrick Henry will look to continue his success against the Texans.
ESPN’s Jamison Hensley: "Henry has produced 102.2 rushing yards per game versus Houston, which is his fifth-highest average against any team. Houston ranks 10th in run defense (106.8 yards allowed per game) this season, but the Texans allowed 124 yards on the ground to Kansas City on Sunday."
| Source | Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 9 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Baltimore Sun | 5 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “The good news for the Ravens is that C.J. Stroud, now missing two of his top three receivers, has not been at his best for most of this season. It will be difficult for Houston to keep up if the Ravens’ offense plays even an average game. The Texans have played close games against top opponents but have fallen short in most of those. That pattern will hold against Baltimore.” — Childs Walker |
| Baltimore Banner | 5 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “Even if the Ravens have only a slight advantage on offense, their defense should have no trouble harassing Houston. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has a shabby offensive line protecting him and, thanks to more bad injury luck, only two legitimate receivers to target: wide receiver Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz. At the end of a three-games-in-11-days stretch, the deeper, healthier team is always the safer bet.” — Jonas Shaffer |
| USA Today | 6 of 6 panelists pick Ravens | |
| NFL.com | 5 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “Having clinched a playoff berth last week, Baltimore is blossoming into a group that could make a deep run. Beating a Texans team that is 1-4 against opponents .500 or better this season feels like the next notch on the belt for John Harbaugh's group.” — Brooke Cerosimo |
| NFL Network | 9 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Sporting News | Ravens 27, Texans 20 | “The Texans are limping toward the finish line with a beefy part of their conference schedule. With some key injuries, there's little upside to them winning here, while the Ravens are more motivated to steal back the AFC North lead from the Steelers for good.” — Vinnie Iyer |
| CBS Sports | 7 of 7 panelists pick Ravens | “The Texans just got hit with a devastating injury (Tank Dell), they don't really have anything to play for since they've already clinched the AFC South, so this feels like a spot where they might go a little conservative with their game plan. On the other hand, this game means everything to the Ravens, who would take a huge step toward winning the AFC North if they can win in Houston.” — John Breech |
| Pro Football Talk | 2 of 2 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Sports Illustrated | 6 of 6 panelists pick Ravens |
Todd Monken's Usage of Henry Was One of Best Coaching Decisions of Week 16
The Athletic's Ted Nguyen cited Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken's usage of Henry against the Steelers as one of the best coaching decisions of Week 16.
Nguyen explained how Monken changed his approach after the Steelers held Henry to 65 yards, his second-lowest total of the season, in the teams' first meeting.
"The Steelers were able to contain the Ravens' under-center run game in Week 11, and when they were in shotgun, Pittsburgh neutralized the threat of Lamar Jackson keeping the ball by 'charging the mesh,'" Nguyen wrote. "That's when the backside defensive ends, who are left unblocked for Jackson to read, would fly upfield and sprint directly at the quarterback.
"In Week 16, the Steelers' strategy was to spread out the Ravens and get called runs that would have Henry running north and south quickly. Knowing the Steelers' edge players would charge the mesh rather than run flat down the line of scrimmage, Monken had right tackle Roger Rosengarten pull and lead into the hole for Henry. T.J. Watt ran right toward Jackson, taking himself out of position to help on the Henry run. Rosengarten blocked inside linebacker Patrick Queen, opening up a lane for Henry."
Nguyen noted that in the Week 16 game, Henry had the second-most carries from shotgun that he's ever had and the most rushing yards from shotgun that he's ever had with 16 carries for 113 yards (7.1 yards per carry). He finished with 24 total rushes for 162 yards.
"Very specific tweaks like this make divisional matchups so difficult to predict," Nguyen wrote. "Both teams know each other and the chess match is always interesting."
Ravens Praised for Understanding Running Back Market Last Offseason
Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer praised the Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, and Green Bay Packers for their shrewd approach to the free agent running back market this past offseason. Those three teams knew the position was undervalued and acted accordingly.
The Ravens, Eagles, and Packers signed veteran running backs – Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs, respectively – and the moves have paid dividends. All three teams have clinched playoff berths, thanks in large part to their star running backs.
"The idea the position was overvalued prevailed for so long that it actually became undervalued," Breer wrote. "It certainly caught my attention this offseason when the three biggest buyers on the veteran running back market — the Baltimore Ravens, Eagles and Green Bay Packers — happened to be three perennial playoff teams that generally are ahead of the curve on these things.
"To me, it's another sign that what's smart in football is always a moving target. Those three teams happened to be the cats, rather than the mice."
Are Ravens Equipped to Finally Get Over the Hump?
The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia looked at one big question facing each team in the AFC playoff picture. For the Ravens, it was whether they are set up to finally get over the hump.
"The Ravens have made the playoffs in five of the last six years. Last season, for the first time during that run, they got to the conference championship. But we still haven't seen Lamar Jackson in the Super Bowl," Kapadia wrote. "Does that change this season? Any offense can have a bad performance in a one-off playoff game, but it's hard to identify an actual weakness with this group.
"Not only are the Ravens first in offensive efficiency, but they're also balanced. They're first in both passing and rushing. There's not that one thing defenses can take away when facing the Ravens. They can win with the run game or the pass game. They can be methodical or explosive. They can operate in structure or in chaos. The flexibility makes them dangerous."
Kapadia pointed out that If the Ravens don't claim the AFC North title, they would likely have to win three road playoff games to reach the Super Bowl.
"Even if they swap places with the Steelers and win the AFC North, they'll still have to likely win road games in Buffalo and Kansas City," Kapadia wrote. "Think about the drama! Josh Allen and Jackson squaring off just for a shot at Patrick Mahomes. These are legacy games that will shape the offseason narratives for the quarterbacks and their respective organizations.
"The Ravens have had 'easier' playoff paths in previous seasons, but they failed to capitalize. Sometimes the football gods operate in mysterious ways. Maybe the Ravens have to conquer their past playoff demons head-on to finally get over the hump."
