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Week 15 Ravens' Playoff Scenarios

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The Ravens are in the thick of the race for an AFC playoff spot.

Baltimore (8-5) is just a half-game behind the leading Bengals (8-4-1) in the AFC North race, and there are several teams still in contention for a wild-card spot.


Every team in the AFC North is still at least a game over .500, and here are the updated division standings:

  • Cincinnati Bengals (8-4-1)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)
  • Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
  • Cleveland Browns (7-6)

The Ravens can't worry about all the different playoff implications – Elvis Dumervil even said Sunday, "I'm not an expert in those scenarios" – but AFC standings will be at the top of fans' minds for the final three weeks of the season.

Here's an overview of the remaining schedules for AFC North teams and what it will take for the Ravens to get into the postseason:

Ravens

Bengals

Steelers

Browns

Jacksonville

at Cleveland

at Atlanta

Cincinnati

at Houston

Denver

Kansas City

at Carolina

Cleveland

at Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

at Baltimore

4 Ways Ravens Can Win The Division

-  Win the final three games against Jacksonville, Houston and Cleveland, and have the Bengals and Steelers each lose one of their final three games. It's worth noting that the Bengals or the Steelers will lose at least one more game because they play each other in the final week of the season.

-  Win two of their final three games, with the one loss coming against the Jaguars or Texans. In this scenario, the Ravens would then need the Bengals to lose to either Cleveland/Denver, and then lose again to the Steelers in Week 17. The Steelers would also have to lose to the Falcons and Chiefs in Weeks 15-16, and then beat the Bengals to conclude the season.

-   Beat the Jaguars and Texans, but lose to the Browns. If the Ravens drop the season finale to Cleveland, they could still win the division if Cincinnati loses to either Cleveland or Denver, and then falls to Pittsburgh in Week 17. The Steelers would have to lose both games in Weeks 15-16 before finishing the season with a win over the Bengals. The other point to consider in this scenario is that the Browns would also have to lose to the Panthers in Week 15 to keep them from winning the division.

-   Lose to Jacksonville and Houston, but beat Cleveland. This would be a long-shot, but the Ravens would be division champs if the Bengals lose their final three games and the Steelers lost to Kansas City and Atlanta. The Browns would also need to beat Carolina to force a three-way tie in the AFC North between Cleveland, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

How Ravens Win A Wild-Card Spot

-  Win out. The Ravens will earn at least a wild-card spot by winning their final three games. If they drop one of their final three, then everything gets murky and they would need a little help. With so many teams in the hunt, it gets too complicated to spell out every scenario.

There are dozens of scenarios that could occur if the Ravens drop a game, and here are the official NFL tiebreaking procedures for the wild-card race.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory.
  5. Strength of schedule.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

  1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
  2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in conference games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

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