Majority of Pundits Pick Chiefs to Beat Ravens in AFC Title Rematch
If the result of last season's AFC Championship Game had been different, tonight's NFL season opener could be taking place at M&T Bank Stadium as the Ravens embarked on their quest for a Super Bowl championship repeat.
Instead, the Ravens will travel to Arrowhead Stadium, where they will look to get the Kansas City Chiefs' quest for an unprecedented Super Bowl championship threepeat off on the wrong foot.
A majority of the pundits we surveyed (37 of 46) don't see that happening. They expect the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to beat the Ravens and Lamar Jackson for the fifth time in six meetings.
Here's what the pundits are saying about the game:
The Chiefs will prevail in a close one.
The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec: "This is the right time to be playing the Chiefs, but the Ravens will be showing up at Arrowhead Stadium with a first-year defensive coordinator, an offensive line with at least two first-year starters if not three and a quarterback who didn't play at all this preseason. That doesn't strike me as the right recipe for an upset. I think the Chiefs pull away late."
The Los Angeles Times' Sam Farmer: "Patrick Mahomes might have his best collection of receivers, and that will more than offset the step back for Kansas City on defense. Derrick Henry gives Baltimore another boost. Close game."
The Baltimore Banner's Giana Han: "For the most part, it felt like the Ravens beat themselves in the AFC championship. They were the better team heading into the game and simply decided not to run the ball. Their offense's performance offset a lights-out defensive half. But this is not the same Ravens team. There is still a lot of talent across the board, but the offensive line is worrying. There's also an inexperienced play-caller on the defensive side in new coordinator Zach Orr. And they're going against a great coach in Andy Reid. He's had months to anticipate how the Ravens will adjust. Of course, both quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, are X-factors. Both can swing a game single-handedly. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens won, but I'm not picking against the Chiefs until they prove I should."
The 33rd Team’s Marcus Mosher: "This should be an incredibly close contest between the top two teams in the AFC but expect Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to come through once again."
NFL Network's David Carr: "I'm going to go with Kansas City just because of the additions they made on the outside, creating more space for Travis Kelce. I think that's going to be the difference. Obviously, I love Derrick Henry, what they're going to do in Baltimore. I see the Chiefs being a little too much at Arrowhead."
Derrick Henry will help the Ravens grind out a win.
Sporting News’ Scott Davis: "If there were ever a game where Baltimore was going to force the run, it's this one. The Ravens, as you may have heard, signed Derrick Henry this offseason. Henry's legs are never going to be fresher this season than they are now. This is the chance for the Ravens to lean on Henry to bulldoze through the Chiefs, wear down defenders, and burn the clock. Each big Henry run will slowly take Kansas City's crowd out of it. There are other benefits. The Ravens have a new, young, unproven offensive line. Playing their first game together, on the road, in front of a raucous Kansas City crowd celebrating another Super Bowl, will be a major task. Add in the Chiefs' penchant for blitzing, and there's the potential for disaster for Baltimore. Thus, handing the ball off to Henry will negate some of the pressure Kansas City can bring. If the Ravens can successfully establish Henry and the run game, it will only open up the pass game, creating a pick-your-poison dilemma for the Chiefs defense."
CBS Sports’ John Breech: "The Ravens already had the best rushing offense in the NFL last year and they made it better this year by adding DERRICK HENRY. Since he was playing for a bad Titans team last year, you might not have noticed that he still finished with the second-most rushing yards in the NFL even though every team was loading the box to stop him. Henry has had a dominating NFL career, and there's no team he's steamrolled more than the Chiefs. The former Titans star has averaged 112 yards per game against Kansas City, which is the MOST he's averaged against ANY team in his career."
Bleacher Report’s Ian Hanford: "I like Lamar Jackson to get his second career win over Patrick Mahomes in the 2024 season opener. While Kansas City has owned Baltimore (and the entire month of September, to a degree), Jackson should be motivated after dropping the AFC Championship Game to the eventual Super Bowl champs last season. Another year in Todd Monken's offense and the addition of Derrick Henry proves just enough to best Steve Spagnuolo's defense in a back-and-forth game to start the year."
Justin Tucker kicks the game-winning field goal.
The Baltimore Sun’s C.J. Doon: "It always feels like a coin flip when Jackson and Mahomes meet, and this should be no different. In the end, the Ravens are fueled by the sting of last year's heartbreaking playoff loss and prove that they're the team to beat in the AFC until an inevitable rematch in January. Put me down for a game-winning field goal by Justin Tucker as a measure of revenge for last year's beef with Travis Kelce."
USA Today’s Safid Deen: "Baltimore might not be able to avenge what was at stake in last season's AFC title game loss, but it'll take a victory to spoil Kansas City's title defense. Derrick Henry should have a steady workload to take pressure off Lamar Jackson and the Ravens while giving Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense limited chances to hurt them on Thursday night. Justin Tucker wins it for the Ravens."
Jackson Reveals How He Can Take His Game to a Higher Level
Jackson already has two league MVPs and a 75.3 career winning percentage, but he believes he can still take his game to another level.
"It's just in the mental [part of the game]," Jackson told Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer. "Just being more of a student of the game, and not to model my game after Tom Brady, but Tom Brady's a guy I feel like we should all try to look at — What had him so successful? Seven Super Bowls. He won with another team. His mindset, his approach to the game, him just knowing where all the guys are, knowing [how] to get a protection.
"He's not a guy who was a dual threat. He's going to throw the ball. He's going to protect it. I know I can get away from these guys, I know where the free rusher is, but let me protect it, let my guys work instead of going to run all the time. Small things. That's the 1%."
Ravens Pose Biggest Threat to Chiefs' Threepeat Bid
While the Ravens are the underdogs tonight, they're being tabbed as the team that poses the biggest threat to the Chiefs' bid for a threepeat.
Fox Sports’ Ben Arthur ranked the Ravens No. 1 on his list of teams who are built to beat Kansas City.
"Playoff success has eluded the Ravens over the past several years, but arguably no NFL team is better equipped to supplant Kansas City than Baltimore, which boasts a roster filled with big-game experience and top-end star power," Arthur wrote.
Arthur pointed to the addition of Henry as one of the main reasons the Ravens can topple the Chiefs.
"With the star running back in the picture, the Ravens become significantly more difficult to scheme against," Arthur wrote. "Eleven personnel doesn't typically offer a tell toward the run or pass, so the Chiefs would have to brace for the threat of a Henry run, Jackson run and a Jackson pass to one of his top two targets (wide receiver Zay Flowers, star tight end Mark Andrews) simultaneously. That's why the Ravens pose a massive threat to the Chiefs. That's why two-time MVP Jackson can finally reach the biggest stage."
A panel of five NFL executives assembled by The Athletic voted the Ravens as the top AFC challenger to the Chiefs.
"I expect some decline on defense without [coordinator Mike] Macdonald, but I do think the offense should take a leap with Mark Andrews back healthy, with Derrick Henry there and with Lamar in his second year of the Todd Monken system," an executive said.
Ravens' Fans Ranked Near Middle of the Pack in Optimism Level for This Season
The Athletic ranked all 32 teams by how optimistic their fans are for the 2024 season, based on a survey of nearly 12,000 fans.
The Ravens were No. 13 with 84.8% optimism. Here's what one optimistic and one pessimistic Ravens fan said:
Optimist Yohanes: "The Ravens had their best offense (of the Lamar Jackson era) in 2019 with Mark Ingram as their RB1 and no strong WR talent. This year we have Derrick Henry, one of the most talented RBs in the league, and rising stars in Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely. This is the year our dynasty begins."
Pessimist Jason: "As long as Patrick Mahomes can walk, anything we do in the regular season just seems to be setting us up for postseason disappointment. We have arguably the second-best QB in the league, but until Mahomes decides he wants to try baseball instead, it's January doldrums again."
Predictions for 2024 Ravens Include Trading for Wide Receiver at Deadline
The Baltimore Banner's Han and Shaffer made 10 predictions for what will happen for the Ravens during the season. Here are some excerpts:
The Ravens will trade for a WR at the deadline.
"Last season, [General Manager Eric] DeCosta nearly swung a deal for then-Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry. This season, with the trade deadline pushed back to the Tuesday after Week 9, he'll have even more time to gauge potential partners. The Ravens could be in the market for a stopgap offensive lineman then, but midseason deals at that position are rare. Guard Ezra Cleveland might be the highest-profile lineman acquired before the deadline in recent years.
"There should be a handful of receivers available, though. Good wideouts with bad quarterbacks want to play with good quarterbacks, especially when they're in the last year of their deals. Smart general managers want to trade players for draft picks before losing them for nothing in free agency. Could the Ravens target someone such as Kendrick Bourne (406 yards in eight games last season with the New England Patriots)? Darius Slayton (770 yards last season with the New York Giants)? Someone bigger? If injuries cripple the team's wide receiver depth, or the passing game needs a spark, DeCosta might have to make a move."
Odafe Oweh will lead the Ravens in sacks.
"Defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike has to be the preseason favorite after a breakout 13-sack season. But the uber-athletic Oweh was a dominant pass rusher for stretches of training camp and, as an outside linebacker, should get more one-on-one opportunities than his All-Pro teammate. The 2021 first-round pick tied his career high with five sacks last season and was unlucky not to finish with more; according to Pro Football Focus, Oweh finished with a higher pass-rush win rate than T.J. Watt (19 sacks), Danielle Hunter (16.5 sacks) and Maxx Crosby (14.5 sacks).
"With his fifth-year option for 2025 picked up this offseason, Oweh isn't playing for a new deal next year. But he approached this spring and summer with his usual rigor, heading to Atlanta to work with Madubuike's pass-rush coach. At the start of camp, Oweh seemed to burn with a quiet intensity."
The Ravens will go 1-1 in the playoffs (again).
"The Ravens have it in them to win the AFC North — but will they play like it? Uncharacteristically sloppy play led to a couple of losses in divisional play last season. If the Ravens keep it together in 2024, they'll win the division again. Claiming the AFC's No. 1 seed for a second straight season, though, will be difficult. If the Ravens get a game in the wild-card round game, they should be able to advance. But with no bye week until early December, and then a stretch of three games in 11 days, the Ravens' late-season depth will be tested. They have a lot of talent, but this roster isn't as deep as last year's. The Ravens might not have the juice to get through the divisional round."
