Large Majority of Pundits Predict Steelers Will Knock Off Lamar Jackson-Less Ravens
The Ravens have locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which has afforded them the luxury of resting key players such as MVP favorite Lamar Jackson for tomorrow's season finale against the Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium. The Steelers, on the other hand, need a victory to bolster their playoff hopes.
Because the stakes are significantly higher for the Steelers (9-7), a large majority of pundits we looked at (34 of 45) are predicting them to knock off the Ravens (13-3).
That's not to say that the Ravens won't be trying to win, especially considering the opponent is their archrival.
"No matter who you play in this particular game in this situation, there would be no lack of motivation," Head Coach John Harbaugh said. "Our guys love to play. They're pro football players. They want to go out there, and they want to play, and they want to play [a] long [time], and they want to win. They want to put their best foot forward. The fact that it's a division rival – the Steelers – that certainly doesn't lessen it."
The teams met under similar circumstances in the 2019 season finale, with the Ravens winning 28-10 to eliminate the Steelers from playoff contention.
Here's what pundits are saying about the game:
The Steelers will win a close one.
**USA Today’s Jordan Mendoza:** "Even with nothing to play for this week, Baltimore should still make this one a game at home. Pittsburgh will be playing desperate football knowing it essentially needs a win to make the playoffs. The Ravens make it tough, but Pittsburgh prevails to stay alive heading into Sunday."
The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec: "I think the Ravens can give the Steelers a really good game with Tyler Huntley and a handful of other key second- or third-stringers playing, but I'm skeptical that Baltimore will have enough firepower on the field to win. When one team will be going all out and the other will be more concerned with the bigger picture, it's sensible to go with the team that's desperate to win the game — and that's Pittsburgh."
**The Baltimore Sun’s Childs Walker:** "The Ravens would be favored by at least a touchdown if they needed to win this game, but they don't, and the Steelers will be fired up to keep their season alive. Mason Rudolph has given their offense a jolt, and they'll move the ball against the Baltimore reserves. The Ravens will keep it close — is it ever not when these teams play? — but won't sacrifice the greater good to chase victory."
**The 33rd Team’s Ryan Reynolds:** "Pittsburgh needs help to make the playoffs, but the team has won two in a row since Mason Rudolph took over at quarterback. Surprisingly, the Steelers have scored 64 points during Rudolph's two starts. Expect Pittsburgh to be highly motivated."
The Ravens will prevail despite the Steelers having more to play for.
**The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia:** "My rule for Week 18: Don't get duped into taking the teams with more to play for. Weird stuff happens in these spots. Give me the Baltimore backups."
**CBS Sports’ John Breech:** "If the Steelers win this game, they'll make the playoffs as long as either the Jaguars or the Bills lose. Basically, this game means everything to the Steelers and nothing to the Ravens, so the obvious pick here should be Pittsburgh, but nothing obvious ever happens in Week 18. This pick really comes down to whether I think the Steelers starters can beat a Ravens team that will likely play a mix of starters and backups and I can't believe I'm going to do this, but I'm taking the Ravens."
The Athletic's Vic Tafur: "[Rudolph] is the biggest reason Mike Tomlin somehow reached another winning season. But I told you all to jump off the Tommy DeVito train a while ago, and now I am pulling the cord on Rudolph. The Ravens backups win at home."
The Baltimore Banner's Chris Korman: "It'll be wet and cold. The Ravens will sit a lot of key players. Seems like a good chance there will be an abnormally large number of Steelers fans. The game matters to Pittsburgh and not to Baltimore. All of which means the Steelers are the favorite, and this Ravens team seems to thrive when doubted."
Justin Tucker wins it for the Ravens.
**The Baltimore Sun’s C.J. Doon:** "Mason Rudolph is starting Saturday after leading the offense to a combined 64 points against the Seahawks and Bengals. The league's best defense will offer a tougher challenge, even with several top players expected to sit out. In a kicker's duel between Justin Tucker and Chris Boswell, the Ravens pull the upset."
If there's any Ravens unit that could use a tune-up before the playoffs, it's their run defense. The Steelers' ground game should offer a useful measuring stick.
The Baltimore Banner's Jonas Shaffer: "Pittsburgh has the NFL's No. 12 rushing offense, according to FTN's efficiency metrics, after rolling up 202 yards (4.4 per carry) in its win Sunday over the Seattle Seahawks. Starter Najee Harris and backup Jaylen Warren both have over 750 rushing yards this season. Under former Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers' commitment to running the ball against the Ravens was curious at times. But, in their two most recent meetings, it also seemed to wear down coordinator Mike Macdonald's front. In Week 5, Warren helped power a late rally with four fourth-quarter carries for 25 yards. In the second half of Pittsburgh's comeback win in Baltimore last year, it was Harris who helped put the Ravens away, rushing 12 times for 62 yards."
Bold prediction: Steelers S Minkah Fitzpatrick gets his first interception of the season.
**ESPN’s Brooke Pryor:** "Fitzpatrick recently returned to practice after injuring his knee against the Colts in Week 15, but his availability is less in question against the Ravens than it's been the past two weeks. Tyler Huntley, starting at quarterback for the Ravens in place of the resting Jackson, has thrown one touchdown pass to three interceptions in three games against the Steelers. For the first time in his career, Fitzpatrick is on the verge of an interception-less season. He beats the buzzer by snagging one off Huntley in a crucial finale."
| Source | Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN | Steelers | |
| Baltimore Sun | 2 of 4 panelists pick Ravens | “No Lamar Jackson, along with some other key starters sitting, means this one will be close. The Steelers need to win to keep their postseason hopes alive, and quarterback Mason Rudolph has been solid the past two weeks, but the weather figures to be sloppy and Baltimore still has enough juice on both sides of the ball to end their division rival’s season after losing to them in October.” — Brian Wacker |
| USA Today | 7 of 8 panelists pick Steelers | |
| NFL.com | 4 of 5 panelists pick Steelers | Lamar Jackson will be smartly stowed in bubble wrap for this one. The Steelers, meanwhile, have plenty on the line to motivate them: chiefly, a chance to end their weird season by making the playoffs behind a third consecutive Mason Rudolph win. Pittsburgh ultimately will need some help on Sunday in order to punch a postseason ticket, but first things first Saturday night. This could be the Ravens' third consecutive January home loss to the Steelers without Jackson on the field, but it would be under much happier conditions than the last two.” — Tom Blair |
| NFL Network | 8 of 10 panelists pick Steelers | |
| Sporting News | Steelers 20, Ravens 17 | “The Ravens could think about exacting some revenge here by trying to avoid a season sweep against their bitter AFC North rivals. But the wiser choice will be sitting soon-to-be two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and a lot of key banged-up players to be healthiest for the divisional playoffs. Rest is important and John Harbaugh will trust his group that it won't lead to rust. Mason Rudolph has provided Pittsburgh with a key holiday spark to wake up dormant parts of the passing game while leaning well on a better rushing attack. Mike Tomlin's latest winning season at 10-7 gives the Steelers a real shot at a playoff return.” — Vinnie Iyer |
| CBS Sports | 4 of 7 panelists pick Steelers | “Who plays for the Ravens since they clinched the top seed? They might play some key starters for a bit. The Steelers need to have this game to have any chance to make the playoffs. But you know these two don't like each other. Even if guys like Lamar Jackson sit, I think the Ravens will win it.” — Pete Prisco |
| Pro Football Talk | 2 of 2 panelists pick Steelers | “I’m gonna pick the Steelers, but I think this will be a nail-biter and would not be shocked if they lost even with the Ravens playing with backups.” — Chris Simms |
| Sports Illustrated | 5 of 7 panelists pick Steelers |
Who Is the Ravens' Defensive MVP?
The Ravens have the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL and have been getting significant contributions from virtually every player on the unit. Picking the MVP of the defense is no easy task.
The Baltimore Banner's writers made the case for three leading candidates. Here are some excerpts:
S Kyle Hamilton
Kyle Goon: "Kyle Hamilton makes you feel things. He is relentless, and plays with a blatant disregard for whatever the opposing offensive coordinator drew up that week. … The beauty of Hamilton is that he can be whatever the Ravens need him to be that week, whether exploiting some specific vulnerability or putting a cap on one of the top opposing threats. He represents the upside and shape-shifting ability of the defense as a whole, and when he's at his best, he's an absolute force — and so are the Ravens."
ILB Roquan Smith
Shaffer: "He leads the Ravens and is fifth in the NFL in tackles (158), including five for a loss. He has a team-high 24 run stops, according to Pro Football Focus, tackles that constitute a "failure" for the offense. He has a forced fumble, an interception and eight passes defensed. And he's played over 97% of the defense's snaps this season. But so much of Smith's value to the Ravens' defense defies easy categorization. He's the signal-caller for the NFL's most chameleonic unit, responsible for sorting out formation shifts and pre-snap motions. He's the hardest hitter on a defense that plays, as running mate Patrick Queen put it, "a brand of football that people don't want to play." And he's a cleareyed, outspoken locker room leader."
DT Justin Madubuike
Giana Han: "He has 41 tackles in addition to his 13 sacks for a total of 54 this season. He has a PFF grade of 75.1, with high marks for his run defense and higher marks for his pass rush. He has 21 run stops, 32 quarterback hurries and 62 quarterback pressures. But for as impressive as Madubuike's season has been on an individual level, what could make him the defensive MVP is how he's contributed to the overall defensive success. Defensive Coordinator Mike Macdonald runs a complicated defense, and it wouldn't work nearly as well without Madubuike's success up front."
Isaiah Likely and Geno Stone Have Made Huge Impact as Replacement Starters
Depth has been a key factor in the Ravens' success this season. Whenever a player went down with an injury, another stepped up so that the team didn't miss a beat.
Two such players — tight end Isaiah Likely and safety Geno Stone — were singled out by ESPN’s Jamison Hensley as replacements who made the biggest impact.
Likely got his opportunity after All-Pro Mark Andrews suffered an ankle injury on Nov. 16 and underwent surgery.
"Much more elusive than the powerful Andrews, Likely has become one of Jackson's best big-play targets," Hensley wrote. "In Baltimore's five games without Andrews, Likely has scored a touchdown in three of them, including the first multi-touchdown game of his career on Sunday. Over that same span, Likely is averaging 15.3 yards per catch. Only San Francisco's George Kittle has a higher average (16.9) among tight ends."
Stone started six games when Marcus Williams dealt with pectoral and then hamstring injuries, and this past Sunday he replaced Hamilton, who was inactive with a knee injury, and got another pick.
"After one interception in his first three seasons, Stone has been a ball magnet, picking off seven passes this season," Hensley wrote. "He ranks second in the NFL behind Dallas' DaRon Bland. It's also tied for the fourth-most by a Ravens player in a single season. Stone is a big reason why Baltimore has the No. 6 pass defense in the league, allowing 195.6 yards per game."
Quick Hits
- Maryland Governor Wes Moore talked about the Ravens being the best team in football and Jackson's MVP candidacy during his appearance on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe."
