The Divisional Round of the playoffs is the best weekend in sports, and the NFL saved the best for last with the Ravens taking on the Bills Sunday night at Highmark Stadium.
Here are my thoughts on the game, all in 50 words or less:
- I like the vibes around the Ravens. They're confident, but focused. They're staying true to themselves, embracing an offensive identity that has eluded them in the playoffs the past few trips. If they don't beat themselves, they can beat whoever comes their way. They might be a runaway train.
- We're hearing a lot of the same words coming from Lamar Jackson this postseason that we did last season – "locked in." But there is a different energy about Jackson this time around. He seems calmer, ready for anything. I think that's serving him and this team well.
721: Previewing Ravens-Bills; Can the Ravens Run it Back?
Team insiders Ryan Mink and Garrett Downing discuss which team the cold weather favors, the mismatches the Ravens offense poses, how the Ravens can slow down Josh Allen, and other keys to Sunday's divisional playoff game in Buffalo.
- Everyone knows what the narrative will be about whichever quarterback loses this game: they're great and all, but they don't win in the playoffs. The winner doesn't shake that label until they slay Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but this is a legacy game for Jackson and Josh Allen.
- Jackson's not thinking about that narrative or about this game determining who (voting aside) was the true MVP. But I do believe that he wants to show he's the best quarterback on the field Sunday night. "I'm trying to beat you; I'm not trying to be your friend," he said.
- Derrick Henry said he's not Baltimore's "Stiff Arm Coordinator," but I believe his physicality hypes up his teammates and has rubbed off on this offense. When they see him punishing defenders, it gets the entire team going. Henry is running like everyone around him is the next victim.
- This game will largely boil down to whether the Bills' lighter nickel-heavy defense can stand up to Baltimore's big-bodied rushing attack. They saw what the Ravens did to the Steelers, and they don't want to be next in line. But are they equipped to stop it?
- The Bills faced third-and-7 or longer just four times in their playoff win last week against the Broncos and didn't covert any. Buffalo won by staying ahead of the chains. If the Ravens' top-ranked run defense stuffs the Bills' offensive line and James Cook, Allen could have a long night.
- The Steelers took the ball first last weekend because teams feel they have to get out in front of the Ravens and push Henry out of the game, especially if Zay Flowers can't play. If Baltimore lands the first couple punches, it's tough for opponents to get off the mat.
These five matchups could determine who goes to the AFC Championship.
![S Kyle Hamilton vs. QB Josh Allen
Limiting Allen will be the No. 1 key to a Ravens win Sunday. Allen is an MVP candidate leading one of the league's best offenses, but Baltimore's defense has been elite since Week 11 when Hamilton moved to a deep safety role. "He is up for the MVP with Lamar [Jackson] for a reason," Hamilton said. "It is because he affects the game in a very different way than a lot of different quarterbacks."](https://static.clubs.nfl.com/image/upload/t_new_photo_album_2x/f_png/ravens/foxuos2hih3bkyo76wse.png)
S Kyle Hamilton vs. QB Josh Allen
Limiting Allen will be the No. 1 key to a Ravens win Sunday. Allen is an MVP candidate leading one of the league's best offenses, but Baltimore's defense has been elite since Week 11 when Hamilton moved to a deep safety role. "He is up for the MVP with Lamar [Jackson] for a reason," Hamilton said. "It is because he affects the game in a very different way than a lot of different quarterbacks."
ILB Roquan Smith vs. RB James Cook
Cook rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown last week against the Broncos as Buffalo ran for over 200 yards. The Baltimore run defense is stout, though, with Smith patrolling the middle to prevent explosive plays. Cook had 39 of the Bills' 81 rushing yards in Week 4, and controlling the run game again will be a top priority for Smith and the defense. The Bills' running backs are also threats in the passing game.
WR Rashod Bateman vs. CB Christian Benford
With Zay Flowers' (knee) status in question, Bateman could be WR1 again this week. Benford will spend time on Bateman, who has been a key end zone threat for Lamar Jackson this season. Benford has turned into a strong young cornerback, but Bateman will be a tough matchup with his elite route-running.
RB Derrick Henry vs. DT Ed Oliver
No one is running the ball better than Henry right now. He has at least 138 rushing yards in his last four games, including 186 and two touchdowns last week. Henry had 199 rushing yards in Baltimore's Week 4 win over the Bills, and the Ravens will try to ride him again on a cold Buffalo night. The Bills have a solid run defense led by Oliver, and they will go all out to stop Henry and Co.
CB Brandon Stephens vs. WR Amari Cooper
The Bills didn't have Cooper when the Ravens beat them, 35-10, in Week 4, but the veteran receiver will be out there Sunday night and spend a lot of time facing Stephens. The Ravens secondary allowed some big plays last week against the Steelers, and limiting the deep shots with Josh Allen at quarterback will be pivotal in the divisional matchup.
- With that said, the Ravens cannot let Allen get comfortable launching bombs in an aerial shootout. They need to contain his scrambles, but the pass rush is going to have to land some shots like it did in Week 4, when Baltimore hit Allen eight times.
- I love the Ravens' attitude on the expected cold weather in Buffalo. They don't care. Roquan Smith went out of his way to make sure I knew that this week in the locker room. Head Coach John Harbaugh said Friday, "We're excited about the temperature. We're excited about everything."
